406 S Smallwood St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$159,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Townhouse public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1920 $186/sqft · 517% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 255 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $160k implies a 789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,915
• List price: $159,999
• Delta: 517.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 S Payson St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	894 (+4%)	7mo	$25,000	$28	75
534 S Smallwood St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+6%)	9mo	$39,900	$44	72
420 S Smallwood St	0.02mi	3/3.5 (+1)	910 (+6%)	4mo	$100,000	$110	71
419 Furrow St	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+14%)	6mo	$41,000	$42	65
1612 Lemmon St	0.50mi	2/1.0	744 (-14%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	54
1610 Lemmon St	0.50mi	2/1.0	744 (-14%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	53
1608 Lemmon St	0.51mi	2/1.0	744 (-14%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	53
1606 Lemmon St	0.51mi	2/1.0	744 (-14%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	53
2659 Lehman St	0.42mi	2/1.5	960 (+12%)	8mo	$124,000	$129	52
2637 Dulany St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+13%)	6mo	$35,000	$36	50
1607 Lemmon St	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	974 (+13%)	1mo	$20,000	$21	49
1604 Lemmon St	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (-14%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,660
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $41,767
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $237	+0% $192	+5% $146	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $132	+0% $192	+5% $251	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $232	base $192	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	25d	1	0.32mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	25d	1	0.36mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,375	$1.60	45d	1	0.41mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.42mi
1712 W Lombard St #4 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	45d	1	0.44mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	19d	1	0.45mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	45d	1	0.45mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	5d	1	0.57mi
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.64mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.70mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.70mi
28 N Norris St Baltimore, MD	1.0	2.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	45d	1	0.71mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	13d	1	0.73mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	5d	1	0.73mi
48 S Carrollton Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	670	$1,600	$2.39	45d	1	0.82mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	45d	1	0.84mi
1215 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.85mi
1142 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,601	$1.48	3d	1	0.92mi
1160 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,575	$1.64	25d	1	0.93mi
1127 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,275	$1.18	25d	1	0.93mi
1163 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1012	$1,700	$1.68	13d	1	0.94mi
923 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,625	$1.61	45d	1	0.99mi
847 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	952	$1,795	$1.89	5d	1	1.05mi
101 N Schroeder St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,481	$2.39	3d	12	1.06mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	5d	1	1.06mi
2429 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	940	$600	$0.64	25d	1	1.07mi
853 Reinhart St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	780	$1,800	$2.31	45d	1	1.09mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit C Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	45d	1	1.13mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	25d	1	1.13mi
805 Washington Blvd Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	21d	1	1.18mi
805 Washington Blvd Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	45d	1	1.18mi
1125 Wicomico St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1068	$1,955	$1.83	25d	1	1.20mi
519 Scott St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	45d	1	1.21mi
776 Washington Blvd Unit 3F Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	45d	1	1.21mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	1.22mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	25d	1	1.22mi
1339 W Lafayette Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	13d	1	1.25mi
121 S Fremont Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	582	$2,100	$3.61	21d	5	1.30mi
725 W Pratt St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	584	$1,925	$3.29	11d	9	1.32mi
812 S Paca St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,999 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,999 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,999 Active 239 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $159,999
16. 2026-01-14
    price $169,999
17. 2025-10-09
    listed $175,900 Active
18. 2025-10-09
    historical $175,900
19. 2023-08-17
    historical
20. 2023-08-17
    listed $99,999 Active
21. 2023-07-26
    historical
22. 2021-08-18
    soldstatus $18,000 Closed
23. 2021-07-22
    status Pending
24. 2021-06-30
    listed $10,000 Active
25. 2020-09-12
    status Pending
26. 2020-09-11
    historical
27. 2020-09-03
    listed $10,000 Active
28. 2013-09-05
    price $12,100
29. 2013-08-05
    soldstatus $12,100 Sold
30. 2013-08-05
    soldstatus $12,100
31. 2013-06-18
    status Contract
32. 2013-06-18
    historical
33. 2013-04-12
    listed $5,000 Active
34. 2013-04-12
    listed $12,100
35. 2000-04-27
    soldstatus $25,227
36. 1986-07-14
    soldstatus $48,000
37. 1985-09-25
    soldstatus $86,110

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $159,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $169,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $175,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-09 Coming Soon $175,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $99,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-26 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-18 Sold (MLS) $18,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-30 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-03 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-05 Price Changed $12,100 MRIS
• 2013-08-05 Sold (MLS) $12,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-05 Sold (MLS) $12,100 MRIS
• 2013-06-18 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-12 Listed $5,000 MRIS
• 2013-04-12 Listed $12,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,227 Public Records
• 1986-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1985-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $86,110 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,051 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.