302 Harlem Rd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1953 6,534 sqft lot Est $155k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming ranch home in Machesney Park located near the Rock River, bike path, shopping, and schools. Enjoy relaxing on the cute front deck or spending time in the fenced backyard. The yard also features a separate fenced area inside the main fenced yard, perfect for a dog run or pet play area. The home offers a spacious living room, functional kitchen, three bedrooms, and a full bathroom all on the main level. An unfinished basement provides plenty of storage space and room for future expansion. The heated garage offers great flexibility with both a double overhead door entrance and a separate single overhead door entrance. A wheelchair ramp leads from the garage to the back door for added accessibility, and the garage also includes a convenient half bath. Major updates include a roof that is approximately 1–2 years old and a furnace installed in 2015.

Key facts

• Half bath
• Front deck
• Heated garage

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FRONT DECK
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• HEATED GARAGE
• HALF BATH
• MAJOR UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number: 0830355001; Rebuilt/rehab not indicated
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces); Garage owned
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Single-story; Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 71–80 years ago; Home built before 1978
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other exterior materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 130; Less than 0.25 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approximately 18 x 10); Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom on main level (10 x 10); Two additional bedrooms on main level (each 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Unfinished full basement; Five total rooms; Hardwood flooring; School bus service available; Disability access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marquette Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 289 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $130k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,000 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Liberty Blvd	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	942 (-0%)	9mo	$189,900	$202	70
432 Winona Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+10%)	8mo	$142,410	$137	68
8315 N 2nd St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	918 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$180	67
28 Liberty Blvd	0.68mi	3/1.0	944 (0%)	3mo	$155,000	$164	66
516 Gilbert Ter	0.34mi	3/2.0	980 (+4%)	9mo	$190,000	$194	66
7819 Shore Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+11%)	8mo	$165,000	$157	62
608 Wayne Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	926 (-2%)	10mo	$170,000	$184	62
530 Wilshire Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+10%)	3mo	$192,000	$185	62
114 Marquette Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+6%)	8mo	$75,000	$75	57
35 Liberty Blvd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+9%)	8mo	$115,100	$112	50
17 Liberty Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.0	870 (-8%)	7mo	$127,500	$147	48
639 Colonial Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	830 (-12%)	0mo	$125,000	$151	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,790
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,139
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $246	+0% $209	+5% $172	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $160	+0% $209	+5% $258	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $242	base $209	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	14d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $129,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   Charming ranch home in Machesney Park located near the Rock River, bike path, shopping, and schools. Enjoy relaxing on the cute front deck or spending time in the fenced backyard. The yard also features a separate fenced area inside the main fenced yard, perfect for a dog run or pet play area. The home offers a spacious living room, functional kitchen, three bedrooms, and a full bathroom all on the main level. An unfinished basement provides plenty of storage space and room for future expansion. The heated garage offers great flexibility with both a double overhead door entrance and a separate single overhead door entrance. A wheelchair ramp leads from the garage to the back door for added accessibility, and the garage also includes a convenient half bath. Major updates include a roof that is approximately 1–2 years old and a furnace installed in 2015.

3. 2026-06-03
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   Charming ranch home in Machesney Park located near the Rock River, bike path, shopping, and schools. Enjoy relaxing on the cute front deck or spending time in the fenced backyard. The yard also features a separate fenced area inside the main fenced yard, perfect for a dog run or pet play area. The home offers a spacious living room, functional kitchen, three bedrooms, and a full bathroom all on the main level. An unfinished basement provides plenty of storage space and room for future expansion. The heated garage offers great flexibility with both a double overhead door entrance and a separate single overhead door entrance. A wheelchair ramp leads from the garage to the back door for added accessibility, and the garage also includes a convenient half bath. Major updates include a roof that is approximately 1–2 years old and a furnace installed in 2015.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,216/yr (+$101/mo · 234.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+147.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $129,900 NWIAR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $129,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $518 · -52.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.