25343 Trinity Oakley Ct · Katy, TX 77493

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,314 sqft lot Garage $204/sqft · 26% below area Est $393k · 26% under · waterfront $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to lakefront living in the sought-after Katy Manor community! Built in 2024, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern design, comfort, and convenience. Situated on a premium lake lot, enjoy peaceful water views from your backyard. The open-concept floor plan is perfect for entertaining, featuring a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, pendant lighting, abundant cabinetry, a breakfast bar, & included refrigerator. Elegant hardwood flooring extends throughout the main living areas.

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Premium lake lot
• Water views

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• PREMIUM LAKE LOT
• WATER VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-747 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 16011% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,690 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $393,407
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -26.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25335 Trinity Oakley Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,420 (0%)	5mo	$279,900	$197	95
4563 Kellmore Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+1%)	15mo	$297,000	$206	77
4919 Abbey Manor Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	16mo	$289,995	$213	73
4447 Kingswell Manor Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	17mo	$274,995	$202	68
5130 Yellow Rays Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-1%)	14mo	$280,000	$199	67
25514 Reign Wayman Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+12%)	5mo	$280,000	$176	66
5227 Ivory Glass Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$177	54
25323 Benroe St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-13%)	13mo	$239,995	$194	54
25215 Benroe St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+12%)	22mo	$289,995	$183	49
5010 Rue Dela Croix Dr N	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+14%)	4mo	$275,000	$169	44
5311 Royal Press Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+14%)	6mo	$273,888	$170	39
4410 Adlington St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-13%)	22mo	$269,995	$219	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-100,357
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-170,933
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,000 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +60.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$674 /mo · $8,085/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,004

Max offer price $161,690

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-583	-5% $-665	+0% $-747	+5% $-829	+10% $-911
Rent	-10% $-910	-5% $-829	+0% $-747	+5% $-666	+10% $-585
Rate	-1.0pp $-601	-0.5pp $-673	base $-747	+0.5pp $-822	+1.0pp $-899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4606 Padbury Manor Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,550	$0.94	72d	1	0.17mi
25403 Benroe St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,095	$1.32	84d	1	0.27mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	55d	1	0.97mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	140d	1	1.06mi
24508 Clay Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,785	$1.70	45d	1	1.18mi
24508 Clay Rd Unit AVL2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,785	$1.70	99d	1	1.18mi
24114 Silver Sunset Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,976	$1.12	4d	1	1.26mi
5022 Brewcastle Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,100	$1.38	139d	1	1.32mi
3030 Galileo Way Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1285	$2,449	$1.91	0d	10	1.47mi
3319 Rosselli Brush Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,750	$1.28	10d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of Cinco Ranch Residential AssociationAnnual association fee of $700Association maintains common areas and recreation facilitiesCommunity amenities: picnic area, playground, trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 car)
• Security: Owned security systemSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationHas a view1,420 living area
• Construction: Built in 2024Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision settingViewsConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalOvenRefrigerator
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningThermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-29
   days on market $290,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-08-28
   days on market $290,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-08-27
   days on market $290,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-08-25
   days on market $290,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-08-24
   days on market $290,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-08-23
   days on market $290,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-08-22
   days on market $290,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-08-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-08-20
   days on market $290,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-08-19
    days on market $290,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-08-18
    days on market $290,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-08-17
    days on market $290,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-08-16
    days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-08-15
    days on market $290,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-08-14
    days on market $290,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-08-13
    days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-08-12
    days on market $290,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-08-11
    days on market $290,000 Active 42 DOM
19. 2026-08-10
    days on market $290,000 Active 41 DOM
20. 2026-08-09
    days on market $290,000 Active 40 DOM
21. 2026-08-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 39 DOM
22. 2026-08-06
    days on market $290,000 Active 37 DOM
23. 2026-08-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 36 DOM
24. 2026-08-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 35 DOM
25. 2026-08-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 34 DOM
26. 2026-07-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 31 DOM
27. 2026-07-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 30 DOM
28. 2026-07-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 29 DOM
29. 2026-07-28
    days on market $290,000 Active 28 DOM
30. 2026-07-26
    days on market $290,000 Active 26 DOM
31. 2026-07-24
    days on market $290,000 Active 24 DOM
32. 2026-07-23
    days on market $290,000 Active 23 DOM
33. 2026-07-22
    days on market $290,000 Active 22 DOM
34. 2026-07-21
    days on market $290,000 Active 21 DOM
35. 2026-07-20
    days on market $290,000 Active 20 DOM
36. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,000 Active 18 DOM
37. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,000 Active 17 DOM
38. 2026-07-16
    days on market $290,000 Active 16 DOM
39. 2026-07-15
    days on market $290,000 Active 15 DOM
40. 2026-07-14
    days on market $290,000 Active 14 DOM
41. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,000 Active 13 DOM
42. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,000 Active 12 DOM
43. 2026-07-11
    days on market $290,000 Active 11 DOM
44. 2026-07-10
    days on market $290,000 Active 10 DOM
45. 2026-07-09
    days on market $290,000 Active 9 DOM
46. 2026-07-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 7 DOM
47. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,000 Active 6 DOM
48. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,000 Active 5 DOM
49. 2026-07-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 4 DOM
50. 2026-07-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,085 · $674/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,085 · $674/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$8,085
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$14,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Katy Manor offers modern design, comfort, and convenience. With a spacious floor plan, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood flooring, it's ready for new owners to move in and enjoy lakefront living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and lawn maintenance — A well-maintained yard and lawn improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce energy costs and improve comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices enhance convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of Cinco Ranch Residential AssociationAnnual association fee of $700Association maintains common areas and recreation facilitiesCommunity amenities: picnic area, playground, trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 car)
• Security: Owned security systemSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationHas a view1,420 living area
• Construction: Built in 2024Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision settingViewsConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalOvenRefrigerator
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningThermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-06-30 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $295,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+182.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,085 · +616.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.