133 Lakeview Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$449,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1970 6,098 sqft lot $346/sqft · 10% below area Est $502k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Washer dryer
• First floor bedrooms

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOMS
• WASHER DRYER
• NEW VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with ducts; Propane heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; No basement; Attic: none; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,199 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $501,506
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Edwards Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (+1%)	5mo	$465,000	$355	69
155 Dahlia Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+5%)	4mo	$399,000	$293	66
161 Washington Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	5mo	$440,000	$367	61
189 Beaver Dr	0.40mi	4/1.5	1,470 (+13%)	3mo	$560,000	$381	55
25 Woodcut Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (-9%)	1mo	$410,000	$349	52
79A Alder Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+9%)	11mo	$545,000	$385	51
303 Orchid Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	7mo	$478,000	$398	51
257 Wavecrest Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (+6%)	6mo	$462,500	$336	50
62 Orchid Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (-6%)	10mo	$285,000	$233	45
150 Wavecrest Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$420,000	$357	45
5 Baker Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,428 (+10%)	3mo	$540,000	$378	43
76 Cedar Rd. Rd E	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,145 (-12%)	9mo	$470,000	$410	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $234,576
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $698,739
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,813/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,901

Max offer price $421,252

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.24mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	0.42mi
48 Eleanor Ave Mastic, NY	3.0	1.0	975	$3,500	$3.59	24d	1	1.21mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	1.40mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $449,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $474,900 Active 282-char remark
16. 2022-05-27
    soldstatus $329,999
17. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus $329,999 Closed 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2022-02-09
    status Pending 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

19. 2022-02-08
    status Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2022-01-31
    historical 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

21. 2022-01-20
    listed $329,999 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

22. 2022-01-18
    price $329,999 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

23. 2022-01-14
    historical $339,999 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Diamond Home - Come enjoy true pride of Home Ownership totally renovated. Kitchen with beautiful shaker cabinets and quartz countertops Will Not Last! Low Low Taxes. Absolutely stunning photos Do NOT do this home justice, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

24. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,813 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,701 · $558/mo
• Expected delta: +$888/yr (+$74/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,813
• − Insurance: −$2,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,554
• − Management: −$3,554
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$9,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,309
• After-tax cash flow: $424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+308.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $474,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $329,999 Public Records
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) $329,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-08 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-20 Listed $329,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-18 Price Changed $329,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-14 Coming Soon $339,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,813 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.