3440 Maple Valley Dr · Cumming, GA 30040

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,515 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1999 1,306 sqft lot $224/sqft · 7% below area Est $366k · 7% under $59/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private cul-de-sac lot in a prime Cumming location! This open floor plan is perfect for first-time buyers, featuring a spacious Great Room with gas fireplace, bright Sunroom overlooking the private backyard, and a light-filled Kitchen with ample cabinets. The primary suite offers two closets and a private bath, while the secondary bedrooms share a Jack-and-Jill bath. Ceiling fans throughout, whole-house fan, peaceful wooded front view, and easy access to GA-400, Highway 9, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 896 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $340k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,292 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,939
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -7.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3450 Maple Valley Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,515 (0%)	7mo	$306,000	$202	94
3625 Maple Valley Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+3%)	4mo	$353,000	$226	85
3410 Pinehurst Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,446 (-5%)	5mo	$280,000	$194	84
3450 Pinehurst Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+9%)	2mo	$344,900	$209	79
3925 Maple Valley Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,503 (-1%)	23mo	$387,000	$257	76
3465 Maple Valley Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,638 (+8%)	11mo	$385,000	$235	75
3707 Delfaire Trce	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-9%)	7mo	$393,080	$284	66
3901 Delfaire Trce	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-9%)	3mo	$410,000	$296	66
3915 Deerborne Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-9%)	13mo	$390,000	$282	59
4019 Somersal Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-9%)	14mo	$425,000	$307	56
3804 Tattenhall Drive Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+14%)	10mo	$440,000	$255	55
3905 Deerborne Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (+12%)	18mo	$425,000	$249	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-77,090
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-104,398
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30040

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 896
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $287,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-198	+0% $-294	+5% $-390	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-390	+0% $-294	+5% $-198	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-207	base $-294	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4008 Delfaire Trce Cumming, GA	3.0	3.0	2132	$1,699	$0.80	22d	1	0.24mi
4008 Delfaire Trce Cumming, GA	3.0	3.0	2132	$2,600	$1.22	6d	1	0.24mi
3305 Hutchinson Rd Cumming, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1327	$2,376	$1.79	2d	11	0.24mi
4407 Weham Ct Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1883	$2,400	$1.27	22d	1	0.33mi
3515 Ridgefair Dr Cumming, GA	3.0	2.0	2041	$2,475	$1.21	11d	1	0.42mi
3323 Castleberry Village Cir Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	2185	$2,350	$1.08	6d	1	0.47mi
350 Bradley Park Ln Cumming, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,141	$1.75	2d	10	0.49mi
3322 Castleberry Village Dr Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1914	$2,495	$1.30	19d	1	0.49mi
357 Azalea Cir Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,200	$1.34	21d	1	0.54mi
545 Fountain Ln Cumming, GA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1620	$2,088	$1.29	2d	1	0.96mi
1400 Northside Forsyth Dr Cumming, GA	3.0	3.5	2000	$3,200	$1.60	44d	1	1.14mi
1600 Ronald Reagan Blvd Cumming, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,910	$2.01	2d	44	1.19mi
5079 Sherwood Way Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,200	$1.19	19d	1	1.21mi
5021 Sherwood Way Cumming, GA	2.0	2.5	1856	$2,200	$1.19	11d	1	1.24mi
5430 Crestwick Way Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	1960	$2,500	$1.28	19d	1	1.41mi
5665 Crestwick Way Cumming, GA	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,699	$1.38	44d	1	1.45mi
4906 Wade Valley Way Unit BS Cumming, GA	2.0	1.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $344,900 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Private cul-de-sac lot in a prime Cumming location! This open floor plan is perfect for first-time buyers, featuring a spacious Great Room with gas fireplace, bright Sunroom overlooking the private backyard, and a light-filled Kitchen with ample cabinets. The primary suite offers two closets and a private bath, while the secondary bedrooms share a Jack-and-Jill bath. Ceiling fans throughout, whole-house fan, peaceful wooded front view, and easy access to GA-400, Highway 9, shopping, and dining.

16. 2012-11-09
    soldstatus $110,000
17. 2012-11-05
    price $110,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

18. 2012-10-16
    historical 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

19. 2012-10-12
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

20. 2012-10-12
    price $118,900 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

21. 2012-09-22
    status Pending 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

22. 2012-09-15
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

23. 2012-08-23
    listed $118,900 Active 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    One of the best Cul-de-Sac lots in Subdivision for privacy! Open floor plan perfect for first time home buyer. Terrific location in Cumming! Great Room with Gas Fireplace. The Sunroom gives a great way to enjoy the private yard! Bright open Kitchen with lots of cabinets. Laundry /Mud Room off Kitchen. Nice size master with 2 closets and private bath. Large secondary bedrooms with Jack and Jill Bath. Ceiling Fans in almost every room plus House Fan. Front of home overlooks trees. Convenient to 400 and Hwy 9 and multiple shopping areas.

24. 1999-09-09
    soldstatus $48,500
25. 1999-09-09
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,127 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$429/yr (+$36/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cumming

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #3797

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Forsyth County · 198,629 people
• City population: 198,629
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 82,532
• Household income: $137,211
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.76%
• Current HPI: 277.8697
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+611.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $344,900 FMLS
• 2012-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-05 Price Changed $110,000 FMLS
• 2012-10-16 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2012-10-12 Price Changed $118,900 FMLS
• 2012-10-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 FMLS
• 2012-09-22 Pending — FMLS
• 2012-09-15 Contingent — FMLS
• 2012-08-23 Listed $118,900 FMLS
• 1999-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1999-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,698 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.