16685 Heritage Pines Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$284,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,019 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Tivoli floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, study, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch cabinetry, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too!

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 inch cabinetry

Tags

• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH CABINETRY
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,192.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $280,715 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-2%)	1mo	$306,990	$141	82
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-6%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	78
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-8%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	72
14154 Granger Pointe	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+2%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	70
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,049 (-8%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	53
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	52
14305 Grey Pointe	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	0mo	$269,790	$136	52
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	1mo	$264,640	$134	51
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-9%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	49
16981 Hazelnut Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+10%)	2mo	$334,900	$137	48
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+10%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	48
14337 Ash Tree Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+10%)	1mo	$319,900	$131	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,581
• Equity at exit: $45,058

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-19,691
• Equity at exit: $26,128

Cash invested: $84,614 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,585
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,533/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $302,192

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,548
• Closing costs: $9,066
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	1d	13	0.76mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-03-31
   price $284,990
4. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-16
   listed $300,377 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,927
• − Property taxes: −$4,533
• − Insurance: −$1,511
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,764
• − Management: −$2,764
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,791
• Taxable loss: −$3,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $2,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Granger Pines, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a spacious 2-story layout, vinyl plank flooring, and a well-maintained exterior. The Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection further enhance its value, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances home automation and energy efficiency
• Both Signature Design Collection — Improves aesthetic appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances home automation and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Signature Design Collection — Improves aesthetic appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $300,377 HARMLS