10003 Valley Wind Dr · Houston, TX 77078

$205,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1978 7,148 sqft lot Est $174k · 18% over $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Completely renovated and move-in ready! This home has been extensively updated from the foundation up, offering peace of mind and modern comfort. Recent improvements include foundation repair with transferable warranty, new roof, new A/C system, updated electrical panel, and a new plumbing system. Inside, you’ll find a fully redesigned kitchen with modern finishes, beautifully updated bathrooms, new flooring throughout, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The layout has been thoughtfully optimized to maximize space and functionality, creating a bright and efficient living environment. Outside, enjoy refreshed landscaping that enhances curb appeal and makes the home feel truly turnk

Key facts

• New a/c system
• New plumbing system
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C SYSTEM
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• NEW PLUMBING SYSTEM
• FULLY REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmore El (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 532 students, 99% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $205k implies a 876% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,243 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,410
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8702 Brock Park Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,099 (+3%)	5mo	$170,000	$155	80
10003 Valley Sun Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,039 (-3%)	11mo	$149,950	$144	76
10119 Valley Club Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+14%)	0mo	$175,000	$144	68
9911 Valley Club Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+12%)	8mo	$219,799	$184	68
8622 Brock Park Blvd	0.15mi	3/1.0	936 (-12%)	4mo	$129,900	$139	67
9902 Valley Park Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+14%)	5mo	$125,900	$103	54
9722 Shive Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+3%)	11mo	$189,900	$173	54
10246 Valley Wind Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+14%)	6mo	$214,900	$176	49
9619 Summer Shadow Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+9%)	16mo	$209,000	$179	44
9602 Summer Shadow Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+9%)	16mo	$209,000	$179	43
8926 Valley Side Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+15%)	7mo	$199,900	$163	39
9214 Mirawood St	0.73mi	3/1.0	968 (-10%)	15mo	$133,000	$137	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,548
• Equity at exit: $86,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $48,088
• Equity at exit: $128,886

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $169,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-142	+0% $-200	+5% $-258	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-260	+0% $-200	+5% $-140	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-148	base $-200	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,575	$1.19	1d	1	0.02mi
8523 Brock Park Blvd Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,375	$1.22	7d	1	0.09mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	45d	1	0.44mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	45d	1	0.61mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	26d	1	0.61mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	22d	1	0.61mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1050	$1,264	$1.20	1d	11	0.63mi
9405 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,675	$1.29	1d	1	0.92mi
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	5d	1	1.00mi
9026 Lake Forest Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	977	$1,397	$1.43	0d	1	1.07mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	26d	1	1.12mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	45d	1	1.12mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	1d	9	1.38mi
12324 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,254	$1.07	26d	1	1.45mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.45mi
12212 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,315	$1.39	7d	15	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscaping

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical
3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-08
   price $205,000
6. 2026-03-14
   price $209,000
7. 2026-03-05
   listed $215,000 Active
8. 2025-12-22
   soldstatus
9. 2001-09-28
   historical
10. 2001-09-10
    soldstatus
11. 2001-06-28
    listed $58,000
12. 1999-03-08
    soldstatus
13. 1996-09-09
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,033/yr (+$86/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$6,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+876.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-28 Listed $58,000 HARMLS
• 1999-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,719 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.