23880 NE 121st Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$197,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1997 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION! This well-appointed home is located on nearly a half acre and is nestled in an outdoor enthusiast's dream location! Go Kayaking, fishing, or snorkeling in some of the most pristine waters Florida has to offer. Just a few minutes from the crystal clear springs of Silver Glenn State Park, Lake Kerr, and Lake George, this 3/2 home also boasts an additional office which can easily be used as a 4th Bedroom by simply adding an armoire or closet. With fresh paint throughout the home, a new water heater, new custom primary bathroom shower, some new kitchen cabinets, hard flooring in every room, and a metal roof, this home is easy to maintain. This property has a huge 27.x12' screened-in porch and THREE storage sheds. One large shed has been converted to a small cabin with electricity and AC. This home also has an FHA compliant anchor system.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Metal roof
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• STORAGE SHEDS
• CONVERTED SHED CABIN
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($716/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fort Mccoy School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 964 students, 73% FRL); North Marion High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,303 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $137k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,257 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,303
• Equity at exit: $29,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,895
• Equity at exit: $17,111

Cash invested: $55,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $197,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $116	+0% $60	+5% $4	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-7	+0% $60	+5% $126	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $110	base $60	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,475
• Closing costs: $5,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $197,900 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,900 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,900 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,900 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,900 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,900 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,900 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,900 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,900 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $197,900 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,900 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,900 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,900 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,900 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,900 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $197,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION! This well-appointed home is located on nearly a half acre and is nestled in an outdoor enthusiast's dream location! Go Kayaking, fishing, or snorkeling in some of the most pristine waters Florida has to offer. Just a few minutes from the crystal clear springs of Silver Glenn State Park, Lake Kerr, and Lake George, this 3/2 home also boasts an additional office which can easily be used as a 4th Bedroom by simply adding an armoire or closet. With fresh paint throughout the home, a new water heater, new custom primary bathroom shower, some new kitchen cabinets, hard flooring in every room, and a metal roof, this home is easy to maintain. This property has a huge 27.x12' screened-in porch and THREE storage sheds. One large shed has been converted to a small cabin with electricity and AC. This home also has an FHA compliant anchor system.

17. 2026-02-25
    price $199,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION! This well-appointed home is located on nearly a half acre and is nestled in an outdoor enthusiast's dream location! Go Kayaking, fishing, or snorkeling in some of the most pristine waters Florida has to offer. Just a few minutes from the crystal clear springs of Silver Glenn State Park, Lake Kerr, and Lake George, this 3/2 home also boasts an additional office which can easily be used as a 4th Bedroom by simply adding an armoire or closet. With fresh paint throughout the home, a new water heater, new custom primary bathroom shower, some new kitchen cabinets, hard flooring in every room, and a metal roof, this home is easy to maintain. This property has a huge 27.x12' screened-in porch and THREE storage sheds. One large shed has been converted to a small cabin with electricity and AC. This home also has an FHA compliant anchor system.

18. 2025-09-16
    price $212,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION! This well-appointed home is located on nearly a half acre and is nestled in an outdoor enthusiast's dream location! Go Kayaking, fishing, or snorkeling in some of the most pristine waters Florida has to offer. Just a few minutes from the crystal clear springs of Silver Glenn State Park, Lake Kerr, and Lake George, this 3/2 home also boasts an additional office which can easily be used as a 4th Bedroom by simply adding an armoire or closet. With fresh paint throughout the home, a new water heater, new custom primary bathroom shower, some new kitchen cabinets, hard flooring in every room, and a metal roof, this home is easy to maintain. This property has a huge 27.x12' screened-in porch and THREE storage sheds. One large shed has been converted to a small cabin with electricity and AC. This home also has an FHA compliant anchor system.

19. 2025-08-19
    listed $217,900 Active 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION! This well-appointed home is located on nearly a half acre and is nestled in an outdoor enthusiast's dream location! Go Kayaking, fishing, or snorkeling in some of the most pristine waters Florida has to offer. Just a few minutes from the crystal clear springs of Silver Glenn State Park, Lake Kerr, and Lake George, this 3/2 home also boasts an additional office which can easily be used as a 4th Bedroom by simply adding an armoire or closet. With fresh paint throughout the home, a new water heater, new custom primary bathroom shower, some new kitchen cabinets, hard flooring in every room, and a metal roof, this home is easy to maintain. This property has a huge 27.x12' screened-in porch and THREE storage sheds. One large shed has been converted to a small cabin with electricity and AC. This home also has an FHA compliant anchor system.

20. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus $137,000 Sold 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Enjoy your spacious living area in this quiet environment. The hard wood floors, walk in closets, Garden tub in the master bathroom, large rooms, and pantry off to the side of the kitchen. Outside screened porch for a quiet night without the bugs biting. Nicely located near Salt Springs for the great outdoors. This is a must see.

21. 2023-07-09
    status Pending 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Enjoy your spacious living area in this quiet environment. The hard wood floors, walk in closets, Garden tub in the master bathroom, large rooms, and pantry off to the side of the kitchen. Outside screened porch for a quiet night without the bugs biting. Nicely located near Salt Springs for the great outdoors. This is a must see.

22. 2023-06-26
    price $132,000 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Enjoy your spacious living area in this quiet environment. The hard wood floors, walk in closets, Garden tub in the master bathroom, large rooms, and pantry off to the side of the kitchen. Outside screened porch for a quiet night without the bugs biting. Nicely located near Salt Springs for the great outdoors. This is a must see.

23. 2023-05-16
    listed $145,900 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Enjoy your spacious living area in this quiet environment. The hard wood floors, walk in closets, Garden tub in the master bathroom, large rooms, and pantry off to the side of the kitchen. Outside screened porch for a quiet night without the bugs biting. Nicely located near Salt Springs for the great outdoors. This is a must see.

24. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $64,900
25. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $64,900
26. 2004-05-02
    historical
27. 2004-04-20
    listed $64,900
28. 2003-04-02
    listed $69,900
29. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$5,757
• Taxable loss: −$2,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kerr, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3498.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $197,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $212,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Listed $217,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) $137,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-06-26 Price Changed $132,000 realMLS
• 2023-05-16 Listed $145,900 realMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (MLS) $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-20 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-02 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,792 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.