415 Margaret St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$164,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1940 7,405 sqft lot $123/sqft · 7% below area Est $177k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a residence where timeless craftsmanship and thoughtful stewardship converge in one of Herkimer's most walkable neighborhoods — a four-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom gem that whispers stories of enduring elegance through every meticulously preserved detail. Step inside and discover the soul of this 1,344-square-foot home: stunning natural woodwork that cascades through the interior with warmth and authenticity rarely found in modern construction. Natural wood pocket doors glide with effortless grace, serving as both functional marvels and architectural showpieces that delineate living spaces with old-world sophistication. These are the kind of details that collectors of f

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Flower gardens
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• NATURAL WOODWORK
• NATURAL WOOD POCKET DOORS
• FLOWER GARDENS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing home; Resale property
• Construction: Wood siding; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Blown-in insulation; Block and poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular lot (50 x 120); Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10; Includes a laundry room
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-488/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $165k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,710 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,165
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -6.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 W German St	0.08mi	4/1.0	1,400 (+4%)	1mo	$172,670	$123	87
302 W German St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,318 (-2%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	83
111 E German St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	3mo	$190,000	$130	63
305 3rd Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+3%)	6mo	$106,000	$77	63
810 Bellinger Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,499 (+12%)	2mo	$174,000	$116	62
704 Ronald St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (+3%)	13mo	$239,900	$173	62
318 Gray St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-2%)	11mo	$145,500	$111	57
620 Ronald St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,172 (-13%)	10mo	$244,100	$208	52
317 S Bellinger St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (-10%)	5mo	$171,720	$141	46
334 Gray St	0.48mi	4/1.5	1,536 (+14%)	10mo	$201,400	$131	46
310 Steuben St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (-11%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	42
401 Harter St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (+13%)	5mo	$193,000	$127	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $87,392
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $259,744
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,736/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $157,710

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $6	+0% $-41	+5% $-87	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-108	+0% $-41	+5% $26	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $1	base $-41	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	45d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 2003-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $164,900 Active 2003-char remark
3. 1998-02-20
   soldstatus $69,000
4. 1994-08-10
   soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,736 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,736 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$4,736
• − Insurance: −$1,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$3,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $164,900 CNYIS
• 1998-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,736 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.