20551 Armada Ct · Estero, FL 33928

$625,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 343 Days on market

Built 1988 0.32 ac lot Est $1034k · 40% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Securely nestled next to Estero Bay Preserve State Park, you can feel right at home with nature. Fully renovated, well maintained 3bed (+Den) 2bath 2457 Sqft ready to move into home. Newly remodeled featuring flooring, cabinets, appliances. baseboards, paint inside and out, new AC unit, water heater, new roof in 2021, two fireplaces, city water, well pump for irrigation/sprinkler system, and much more. Just a short walk to an 11,000-acre State Park & Preserve with miles of scenic hiking trails. Only 20 minutes to landmarks such as the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox Spring Training fields, Ft. Myers airport, Barefoot Beach County Park, Bonita Springs Beach & minutes to great

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Scenic hiking trails
• Water heater

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED
• SCENIC HIKING TRAILS
• TWO FIREPLACES
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $100 annual fee; Association fees include legal/accounting and reserve fund; Community is non-gated; 27 units in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Paved; Garage door opener; Two covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Well irrigation source
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level 1; Faces West; Faces East exposure noted for lot
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built as resale property
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinklers; Patio; Room for pool; Manual shutters; Lanai; Porch; Screened patio/porch; Sprinkler/Irrigation (well)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Den; Screened porch
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Attic; Dual sinks; Family/Dining room; Fireplace; High ceilings; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs; Shower only with separate shower; Cable TV; Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $625k).
• Recommended offer: $550k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,713/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($550k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $625k implies a 392% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $550,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,034,397
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19840 Chapel Trce	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,651 (+8%)	4mo	$1,115,000	$421	53
19723 Estero Pointe Ln	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,275 (-7%)	5mo	$705,000	$310	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-48,401
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-24,742
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,713 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,303/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,410
• Net cashflow: $1,139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,271

Max offer price $625,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,493	-5% $1,316	+0% $1,139	+5% $962	+10% $785
Rent	-10% $609	-5% $874	+0% $1,139	+5% $1,404	+10% $1,669
Rate	-1.0pp $1,454	-0.5pp $1,298	base $1,139	+0.5pp $977	+1.0pp $812

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5000 Royal Shores Dr #101 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2060	$10,000	$4.85	24d	1	0.56mi
19500 Marsh Point Run #201 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$5,000	$2.45	24d	1	0.65mi
4761 W Bay Blvd Unit 1545976P Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1743	$4,994	$2.87	15d	1	1.17mi
4761 W Bay Blvd #703 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2150	$9,000	$4.19	24d	1	1.17mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #402 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1608	$7,500	$4.66	16d	1	1.21mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #101 Estero, FL	3.0	3.5	2342	$12,500	$5.34	24d	1	1.21mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #402 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1608	$7,500	$4.66	24d	1	1.21mi
3702 Pino Vista Way #3 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,300	$1.43	4d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $625,000 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $625,000 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $625,000 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $625,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $625,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2025-07-02
    listed $625,000 Active
11. 1995-11-02
    soldstatus $127,000
12. 1991-12-06
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,188 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,884/yr (+$240/mo · 125.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,303
• − Insurance: −$8,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,445
• − Management: −$6,445
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable income: $3,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$920
• After-tax cash flow: $12,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-02 Listed $625,000 FORTMLS
• 1995-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,303 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.