25 Pansy Ln · Monticello, NY 12701

$64,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured · 178 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition $794/mo HOA · 46% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a fantastic opportunity in the sought-after Kinnebrook Community. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is priced to sell! The home features a functional layout awaiting your personal touch. Enjoy a hassle-free lifestyle with community-provided water, septic, snow, and trash removal, as well as fantastic amenities including an in-ground pool and a dog park. With low lot rent and a motivated seller, this property, sold AS-IS, won't last long. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Dog park
• In-ground pool
• Community pool

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• DOG PARK
• COMMUNITY-PROVIDED WATER
• COMMUNITY-PROVIDED SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $57,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.32%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $43,952
• Equity at exit: $58,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $124,132
• Equity at exit: $126,279

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$794
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $64,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $794 · $9,528/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,999 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,999 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,999 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,999 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,999 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,999 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,999 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,999 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,999 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,999 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,999 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,999 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,999 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,999 Active 159 DOM
15. 2025-12-16
    listed $64,999 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Welcome to a fantastic opportunity in the sought-after Kinnebrook Community. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is priced to sell! The home features a functional layout awaiting your personal touch. Enjoy a hassle-free lifestyle with community-provided water, septic, snow, and trash removal, as well as fantastic amenities including an in-ground pool and a dog park. With low lot rent and a motivated seller, this property, sold AS-IS, won't last long. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − HOA: −$9,528
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in the Kinnebrook Community requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting, replacing worn cabinets and fixtures, and trimming the landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn condition
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Need cleaning
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures increase appeal
• Both Landscaping — Neat landscaping improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn condition	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$7,000–36,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures increase appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Neat landscaping improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #17510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 12,197
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Listed $64,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid