6219 Pinecrest Dr · Paradise, CA 95969

$15,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1960 ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1/4 acre vacant land.

Key facts

• Built 1960
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.5% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 250.74%
• DSCR: 12.16
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.78×
• Total profit: $57,874
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.75×
• Total profit: $141,757
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $314/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $141

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6377 Oak Way Unit B Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	551	$1,295	$2.35	13d	1	0.64mi
1090 Shadowbrook Way Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	640	$1,150	$1.80	13d	2	1.24mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $15,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $15,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $15,000 Active 21-char remark
19. 2024-12-15
    historical
20. 2024-06-15
    listed $30,000 Active
21. 2003-08-06
    soldstatus $87,500
22. 2000-12-29
    soldstatus $55,000
23. 1994-06-23
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 1992-09-14
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$314
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $10,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $7,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $15,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-12-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-15 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2003-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.