258 Vineyard Rd · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1945 8,712 sqft lot $249/sqft · 8% below area Est $216k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Subject To Specific Purchase * Perfect Starter Home * Newer Vinyl Windows W/ Warranty * Remodeled Kitchen/Bath * Breakfast Room Adjacent To Kitchen * Triple Lot * Garage W/ Workbench * Low Traffic Area + Great Family Neighborhood * Includes Pp #029 * Show And Sell!!!

Key facts

• Expansive yard
• Double lot
• Private green space

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• DOUBLE LOT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• PRIVATE GREEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Approximately 799 above-grade finished area; Built according to public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Patio; Porch; Solar energy features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Main-level laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Erieview Elementary School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #272 of 1,584 statewide, top 19%, 294 students, 8% FRL); Troy Intermediate Elementary School (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A+, #54 of 654 statewide, top 9%, 549 students, 12% FRL); Avon Lake High School (math 67% / reading 87%, grade A-, #56 of 781 statewide, top 8%, 1,152 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $199k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,121 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,649
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -7.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
192 Sunset Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$274	80
226 Sunset Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0	704 (-12%)	4mo	$185,000	$263	71
208 Sunset Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	914 (+14%)	2mo	$118,500	$130	66
263 Sunset Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	890 (+11%)	21mo	$202,000	$227	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,577
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,667
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,049/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,748

Max offer price $181,364

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-44	+0% $-100	+5% $-156	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-164	+0% $-100	+5% $-36	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-49	base $-100	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $199,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $219,000 Active 1423-char remark
18. 2003-08-29
    soldstatus $115,500
19. 1997-12-02
    soldstatus $76,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    * Subject To Specific Purchase * Perfect Starter Home * Newer Vinyl Windows W/ Warranty * Remodeled Kitchen/Bath * Breakfast Room Adjacent To Kitchen * Triple Lot * Garage W/ Workbench * Low Traffic Area + Great Family Neighborhood * Includes Pp #029 * Show And Sell!!!

20. 1997-11-26
    soldstatus $76,000
21. 1997-10-22
    historical 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    * Subject To Specific Purchase * Perfect Starter Home * Newer Vinyl Windows W/ Warranty * Remodeled Kitchen/Bath * Breakfast Room Adjacent To Kitchen * Triple Lot * Garage W/ Workbench * Low Traffic Area + Great Family Neighborhood * Includes Pp #029 * Show And Sell!!!

22. 1997-04-21
    listed $82,500 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    * Subject To Specific Purchase * Perfect Starter Home * Newer Vinyl Windows W/ Warranty * Remodeled Kitchen/Bath * Breakfast Room Adjacent To Kitchen * Triple Lot * Garage W/ Workbench * Low Traffic Area + Great Family Neighborhood * Includes Pp #029 * Show And Sell!!!

23. 1990-07-20
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,049 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,077 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,049
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+232.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $199,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $209,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-28 Listed $219,000 MLSNOW
• 2003-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (MLS) $76,000 MLSNOW
• 1997-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-22 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1997-04-21 Listed $82,500 MLSNOW
• 1990-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,049 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.