5130 E Outer Dr · Detroit, MI 48234

$47,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 633 Days on market

Built 1953 6,534 sqft lot $46/sqft · 33% below area Est $70k · 33% under ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

Key facts

• Original tile
• Full basement
• Brick ranch

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• ORIGINAL TILE
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 10.1% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,347/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2372% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 633 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 633 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.60%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,211
• List price: $47,000
• Delta: -33.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8212 E Lantz St	0.21mi	3/1.0	989 (-4%)	2mo	$60,000	$61	83
18696 Blackmoor St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-2%)	0mo	$77,500	$77	77
8245 E Hildale St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,028 (+0%)	3mo	$45,000	$44	71
19422 Algonac St. St	0.31mi	3/1.5	942 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$69	64
18709 Runyon St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	7mo	$62,000	$62	63
8175 House St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+13%)	1mo	$100,000	$86	63
19361 Beland St	0.35mi	3/1.0	901 (-12%)	2mo	$47,500	$53	62
20043 Packard St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+2%)	6mo	$87,000	$84	58
19140 Algonac St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	892 (-13%)	1mo	$46,000	$52	55
19161 Rogge St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-2%)	8mo	$46,500	$46	55
7505 E Robinwood St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-2%)	3mo	$140,500	$141	52
19985 Packard St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+12%)	7mo	$90,000	$78	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $43,465
• Equity at exit: $7,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $120,149
• Equity at exit: $4,064

Cash invested: $13,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48234

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $47,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $746	-5% $733	+0% $719	+5% $706	+10% $693
Rent	-10% $613	-5% $666	+0% $719	+5% $773	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $743	-0.5pp $731	base $719	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,750
• Closing costs: $1,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19691 Cliff St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	6d	1	0.68mi
19171 Cliff St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.69mi
18431 Teppert St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	2d	1	0.70mi
7533 Quinn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	44d	1	0.72mi
20042 Rogge St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1232	$1,394	$1.13	44d	1	0.77mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	25d	1	0.83mi
8242 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,198	$1.43	44d	1	0.87mi
20290 Annott St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	18d	1	0.92mi
11513 Greiner St Unit 11521 Greiner Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	44d	1	0.92mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	0.98mi
11377 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	1.03mi
18681 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,400	$1.34	25d	1	1.09mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	18d	1	1.10mi
18703 Waltham St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.13mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	4d	1	1.15mi
19419 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1293	$1,325	$1.02	18d	1	1.18mi
19207 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1179	$1,800	$1.53	18d	1	1.19mi
17851 Strasburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,100	$1.02	18d	1	1.20mi
8065 Meadow Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	25d	1	1.21mi
8162 Orchard Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.22mi
19610 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	18d	1	1.22mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	18d	1	1.24mi
17241 Rowe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1316	$1,450	$1.10	18d	1	1.26mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	18d	1	1.26mi
8640 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	804	$1,423	$1.77	25d	1	1.28mi
7060 Victory Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	12d	1	1.29mi
8632 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	761	$1,300	$1.71	4d	1	1.33mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	25d	1	1.33mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	44d	1	1.35mi
18624 Fairport St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,450	$1.57	25d	1	1.36mi
18624 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	22d	1	1.36mi
7043 Meadow Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	911	$1,274	$1.40	44d	1	1.37mi
19415 Gable St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,373	$1.37	25d	1	1.39mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	4d	1	1.39mi
7511 Toepfer Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,199	$1.16	22d	1	1.39mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	18d	1	1.41mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	18d	1	1.43mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	25d	1	1.43mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	25d	1	1.44mi
7275 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	703	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $47,000 Pending 633 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $47,000 Active 633 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $47,000 Active 631 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $47,000 Active 630 DOM
5. 2025-10-04
   price $49,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

6. 2025-10-04
   price $49,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

7. 2025-06-06
   price $55,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

8. 2025-06-06
   price $55,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

9. 2025-05-21
   price $68,000 140-char remark

   Show marketing remark (140 chars)

   Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

10. 2025-05-20
    price $68,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

11. 2024-09-08
    listed $70,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

12. 2024-09-08
    listed $70,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Brick ranch on Detroit's East Side. Living room with fireplace. Bathroom with original tile. Full basement. Good candidate for fix and rent.

13. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $70,000
14. 2021-11-04
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
15. 2021-11-04
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
16. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 2021-09-10
    status Pending
18. 2021-09-10
    status Pending
19. 2021-08-26
    listed $54,900 Active
20. 2021-08-26
    listed $54,900 Active
21. 2008-05-07
    soldstatus $10,500
22. 2008-01-03
    listed $10,000
23. 2002-11-04
    soldstatus $78,800
24. 2002-11-04
    soldstatus $45,000
25. 2002-11-04
    soldstatus $78,800
26. 2002-04-15
    historical
27. 2001-09-04
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,633
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$1,367
• Taxable income: $8,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $6,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 32,760
• Household income: $35,322
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2372.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.65%
• Current HPI: 328.8978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-38.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $68,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $68,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-08 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-08 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-04 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-04 Sold (MLS) $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-08-26 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-07 Sold (MLS) $10,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-01-03 Listed $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $78,800 Public Records
• 2002-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-04 Sold (MLS) $78,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-04-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-09-04 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $942 · -53.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.