2 Pine Run · Poinciana, FL 33844

$201,600

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1978 7,471 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

Key facts

• His-and-hers closets
• Formal dining room
• Formal living room

Tags

• OVERSIZED FLORIDA ROOM
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HIS-AND-HERS CLOSETS
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on less than 1/4 acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-46/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,204 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,114
• Equity at exit: $30,059

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,418
• Equity at exit: $17,431

Cash invested: $56,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,057
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,245/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $200,923

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $53	+0% $-4	+5% $-61	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-74	+0% $-4	+5% $67	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $47	base $-4	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,400
• Closing costs: $6,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Buck Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,595	$1.20	15d	1	0.10mi
132 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,800	$0.98	24d	1	0.43mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	11d	1	0.58mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	20d	1	0.58mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	11d	1	1.32mi
4241 Alamanda Blvd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,500	$1.27	15d	1	1.32mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $201,600
3. 2026-03-21
   listed $224,000 Active
4. 2024-08-11
   historical
5. 2024-08-06
   price $255,000
6. 2024-07-25
   listed $265,000 Active
7. 2022-04-18
   soldstatus $245,000
8. 2022-04-14
   soldstatus $245,000 Closed 1815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

   Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

9. 2022-03-15
   status Pending 1815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

   Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

10. 2022-03-12
    status Active 1815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

    Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

11. 2022-01-25
    status Pending 1815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

    Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

12. 2022-01-20
    listed $239,900 Active 1815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

    Back on the market! This is a beautiful and very well maintained 2 bedroom / 2 bath home offering a wonderful unobstructed view. As you arrive at the home, you will immediately notice its great curb appeal. Walking to the front door you will see the meticulously maintained yard with beautiful landscaping. Entering the foyer through the updated front door you are welcomed into the hallway directing you into the inviting living and dining room. The living room has sliding doors on both sides where you can walk into the large Florida room with nicely updated windows. You will spend most of the time in this Florida room measuring over 200sqft. while enjoying your views and sipping your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. Most of the interior and the exterior of this home have been repainted approximately 2 years ago. The kitchen has plenty of storage space offering an additional pantry. The kitchen window, backsplash, sink and kitchen faucet have all been updated. Right off the kitchen there is access to the garage. The insulated garage door was replaced about 4 years ago and the garage has an epoxy floor and additional screened door. Entering the front door on the left side of the home you will find a great size master bedroom with ensuite bathroom. The ensuite bathroom offers a tub with shower, updated commode, linen closet and his and hers walk in closets. There is a nice sized guest bedroom and guest bathroom with updated commode. The current homeowners had extra insulation put in the attic. This home is sitting on a beautiful 0.17 acre lot and the sprinkler system is connected to a well. This great home is very centrally located. close to HWY 27 and not too far from the Disney parks. You will enjoy Central Florida country living at its finest while still being close to shopping!

13. 2004-04-05
    soldstatus $76,500
14. 1979-01-01
    soldstatus $46,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,293
• − Property taxes: −$3,245
• − Insurance: −$1,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$5,865
• Taxable loss: −$3,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$827
• After-tax cash flow: $781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+334.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $201,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-20 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,245 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.