519 Ash St · Mount Carmel, IL 62863

$57,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 1900 3,485 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, and the main level includes a spacious kitchen with pantry, a dedicated dining room, and the added benefit of main floor laundry. One bedroom is smaller in size and would work well as an office, nursery, or flex space (but lacks large window egress). This home also has large closets for storage. Outside, enjoy a covered front porch and a covered rear patio, along with a manageable yard for easy upkeep. The detached 1-car garage includes electric, a concrete floor, and an automatic door opener. Additional highlights include a partial basement/cellar, gas central heat, gas water heater, updated roof in 2023 (per seller), metal siding f

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($878 rent vs $58k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#700 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Wabash CUSD 348 (town): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #478 of 620 in IL (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt Carmel Grade School (math 13% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,354 of 2,056 statewide, top 66%, 395 students, 0% FRL); Mount Carmel High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 466 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Wabash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($398 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wabash County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $58k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.72%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $51,582
• Equity at exit: $51,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.44×
• Total profit: $135,962
• Equity at exit: $111,710

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62863

• Home prices YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $475

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $334	+0% $318	+5% $302	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $284	+0% $318	+5% $353	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $333	base $318	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $57,500 Active
3. 2000-06-30
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 58.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$843
• − Management: −$843
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $3,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $3,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wabash CUSD 348
• NCES district ID: 1740470
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $45,869
• Composite: 15.01/100
• National rank: #9359
• State rank: #478 of 620 in IL

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #700
• US rank: #14280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,438

Population outlook (Wabash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,660 people
• By 2030: 10,134 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 9,122 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 8,212 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 6,435 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 4,890 · -54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wabash

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.3% · R 76.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.7pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+13.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.59%
• Current HPI: 280.61
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+105.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $57,500 IRMLS
• 2000-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $600 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.