609 Cedar St · Southport, NY 14904

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1920 6,098 sqft lot Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom Ranch that needs some work. Large living room, first floor laundry & could also be used as family room. Off street parking. All offers must have proof of funds or pre-approval letter from lender showing amount. Mineral rights unknown & if owned will transfer.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.5% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#690 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, health & safety D.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $110k implies a 424% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.33%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Stacia Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	912 (0%)	7mo	$92,000	$101	74
635 Newtown St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	913 (+0%)	8mo	$123,500	$135	72
719 Dubois St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+10%)	4mo	$120,000	$119	68
614 Chester St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-4%)	4mo	$112,765	$129	67
763 Chester St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-5%)	4mo	$117,000	$135	67
604 Spruce St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-13%)	12mo	$79,000	$100	57
420 Hillview Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	988 (+8%)	14mo	$130,000	$132	55
406 S Walnut St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+10%)	1mo	$122,000	$122	54
820 Hazel St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+13%)	7mo	$147,187	$143	50
563 Coburn	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	976 (+7%)	11mo	$79,999	$82	50
928 Cedar	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (+3%)	12mo	$110,000	$117	50
543 Mount Zoar	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	775 (-15%)	16mo	$85,900	$111	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,614
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $35,126
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,626/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	44d	1	0.53mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	44d	1	0.75mi
711 W Water St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	590	$1,100	$1.86	44d	1	0.99mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-26
   status Active
3. 2025-02-13
   listed Active Under Contract
4. 2025-01-27
   listed $110,000
5. 2016-08-19
   soldstatus $21,000 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch that needs some work. Large living room, first floor laundry & could also be used as family room. Off street parking. All offers must have proof of funds or pre-approval letter from lender showing amount. Mineral rights unknown & if owned will transfer.

6. 2016-05-13
   listed $25,740 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch that needs some work. Large living room, first floor laundry & could also be used as family room. Off street parking. All offers must have proof of funds or pre-approval letter from lender showing amount. Mineral rights unknown & if owned will transfer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,626
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$679
• After-tax cash flow: $3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southport

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #13026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southport, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+327.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-03-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-02-13 Listed — UNYREIS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-08-19 Sold (MLS) $21,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-05-13 Listed $25,740 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,626 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.