195 Apricot Ln · Calera, AL 35040

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 979 sqft · Townhouse public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2010 3,049 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $187k · 9% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming one-level townhouse in the heart of Calera offering 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths with an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle. This well-kept home features an open-concept living and dining area with vaulted ceilings, spacious bedrooms, and a functional kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space, while the second bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests, roommates, or a home office. Whether you are a first-time buyer, looking to downsize, or searching for a strong investment opportunity, this townhouse is one you do not want to miss.

Key facts

• $13 HOA
• Built 2010
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property access via paved public road; Located in Calera Commons subdivision
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $150; HOA fees cover common grounds maintenance and utilities for common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Underground utilities; Electric water heater; Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows; Internet availability unknown
• Home design: Single-family property (existing construction); One-level living (rooms listed on main level)
• Construction: One-side brick and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Garden/patio area; Interior lot in a subdivision; Curb and gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area; Laminate countertops; Built-in dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on main level; Master bedroom on main level with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Separate shower in at least one bath; Tub/shower combo in at least one bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted and smooth ceilings; Some window treatments to remain; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in a closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,765 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,885
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Danbury Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,023 (+4%)	1mo	$169,900	$166	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-21,392
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,897
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $129	+0% $81	+5% $33	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $22	+0% $81	+5% $140	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $124	base $81	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2027 Rossburg Pl Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,300	$1.21	24d	1	0.84mi
699 The Heights Ln Calera, AL	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	11d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $177,000 618-char remark
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $179,000 Active 618-char remark
18. 2024-03-22
    soldstatus $153,000
19. 2018-07-19
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $177,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $179,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.