923 W Alice Ave · Kingsville, TX 78363

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1945 0.25 ac lot Est $208k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled just moments from Texas A & M University-Kingsville, this well-cared-for 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home invites your personal touch. Beneath the existing carpet, original hardwood floors await rediscovery. The spacious living room offers an open flow into the dining area & cozy kitchen that are all perfect for entertaining. The bedrooms & laundry room are generous in size. In addition, a bright den with a picture window overlooks the charming backyard, complete with a custom-built gazebo, mature trees, and a spacious workshop. Offered at an exceptional price, this home gives you room to add your own personal touch.

Key facts

• Bright den
• Spacious workshop
• Custom-built gazebo

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRIGHT DEN
• CUSTOM-BUILT GAZEBO
• SPACIOUS WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with front entry
• Utilities: Municipal utilities; Public water; Public sewer (sewer available)
• Home design: Single‑story home; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Handicap accessible; Storage; Workshop; Chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range / free‑standing range; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings / treatments; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Lee Ave	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,614 (-1%)	5mo	$265,000	$164	68
625 W Richard Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,577 (-3%)	10mo	$165,000	$105	68
728 Santa Anita Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+4%)	8mo	$199,900	$118	65
1506 Santa Cecilia Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+6%)	5mo	$220,000	$128	62
708 Santa Anita Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-13%)	2mo	$237,800	$168	59
603 W Ave B	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	2mo	$240,000	$135	59
530 W Richard Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	12mo	$39,900	$23	58
1635 Santa Cecilia Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-4%)	6mo	$209,000	$134	56
1605 Santa Cecilia Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+6%)	9mo	$219,000	$127	55
409 W King Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,565 (-4%)	14mo	$149,900	$96	50
415 W King Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-8%)	10mo	$179,000	$120	44
1709 Santa Monica St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+9%)	15mo	$245,000	$138	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,740
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $46,632
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,110/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $249	+0% $207	+5% $165	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $141	+0% $207	+5% $273	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $245	base $207	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 W Lee Ave Kingsville, TX	4.0	2.5	1970	$1,825	$0.93	44d	1	0.18mi
614 W Alice Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,599	$0.93	44d	1	0.32mi
629 W Nettie Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$1,495	$0.85	44d	1	0.37mi
307 W Alice Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.61mi
503 W Mesquite Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	14d	1	0.71mi
710 E C Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    listed $149,900 Active
18. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,110
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,308
• Composite: 14.5/100
• National rank: #9425
• State rank: #800 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #7787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsville, TX
• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• City population: 28,920
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,110 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.