709-965 Lake Ave · Johnstonville, CA 96130

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1981 8,712 sqft lot Est $213k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

#1204 HUD HOME! Three bedroom, two bath in convenient Leavitt Lake area just outside of Susanville proper. One car attached garage, concrete driveway, mostly fenced. This could shine with a little TLC.

Key facts

• Open dining area
• Finished out garage
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OPEN DINING AREA
• FINISHED OUT GARAGE
• BIG GREEN FRONT YARD
• FRUIT TREES
• BLANK CANVAS FOR BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Concrete parking surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating (wood stove)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows; Wood stove fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#234 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, schools A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shaffer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #925 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $170k implies a 386% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470-730 Levee Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+2%)	5mo	$235,000	$216	86
709-985 Lake Ave	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+7%)	1mo	$229,000	$201	84
709-875 Tamarack St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+10%)	4mo	$213,000	$181	73
710-445 Lake Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,064 (0%)	17mo	$200,000	$188	73
710-060 Muskrat Dr	0.14mi	3/0.5	1,120 (+5%)	8mo	$223,000	$199	72
710120 Willow St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,127 (+6%)	17mo	$235,000	$209	70
710-260 Lake Ave	0.19mi	3/0.5	1,127 (+6%)	7mo	$229,000	$203	70
710-225 Willow St	0.16mi	3/0.5	1,124 (+6%)	10mo	$180,000	$160	68
710-065 Lake Ave	0.05mi	3/0.5	1,140 (+7%)	14mo	$220,000	$193	68
710-455 Lake Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+7%)	10mo	$165,000	$145	64
471-000 Cottonwood Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+8%)	21mo	$230,000	$200	60
470-505 Cottonwood Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	921 (-13%)	14mo	$212,000	$230	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,950
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,143
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $357	+0% $309	+5% $261	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $241	+0% $309	+5% $376	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $352	base $309	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
709-895 Alder St Susanville, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,700	$1.48	14d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 265 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    status Active
18. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-23
    price $179,000
20. 2026-01-21
    price $189,900
21. 2025-08-23
    listed $199,900 Active
22. 2014-01-13
    soldstatus $35,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    #1204 HUD HOME! Three bedroom, two bath in convenient Leavitt Lake area just outside of Susanville proper. One car attached garage, concrete driveway, mostly fenced. This could shine with a little TLC.

23. 2013-12-11
    listed $36,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    #1204 HUD HOME! Three bedroom, two bath in convenient Leavitt Lake area just outside of Susanville proper. One car attached garage, concrete driveway, mostly fenced. This could shine with a little TLC.

24. 1999-09-28
    soldstatus $67,500
25. 1994-09-30
    soldstatus $64,000
26. 1992-06-25
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 49.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $954
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $3,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shaffer Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0636420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,545
• Composite: 31.53/100
• National rank: #11160
• State rank: #925 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Johnstonville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #7626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+922.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — LAORMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — LAORMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $179,000 LAORMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $189,900 LAORMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $199,900 LAORMLS
• 2014-01-13 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2013-12-11 Listed $36,000 CRMLS
• 1999-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 1994-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.