Athena Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,422.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,008 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.82%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,422
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -22.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 Enforcer Loop	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	4mo	$234,891	$154	90
329 Enforcer Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	2mo	$268,190	$176	89
101 Dirty Harry Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	2mo	$257,044	$182	82
220 Escape Way	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+1%)	0mo	$259,990	$170	78
260 Escape Way	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+1%)	1mo	$279,990	$183	77
335 Enforcer Loop	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+6%)	6mo	$268,020	$167	76
200 Escape Way	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+1%)	4mo	$274,990	$180	76
265 Escape Way	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+1%)	4mo	$268,990	$176	75
225 Firefox Way	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+1%)	4mo	$259,990	$170	74
217 Bronco Billy Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,616 (+6%)	1mo	$229,900	$142	70
124 Perfect World Loop	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-7%)	4mo	$229,000	$161	67
725 Bronco Billy Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,698 (+12%)	5mo	$252,500	$149	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-94,679
• Equity at exit: $45,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-154,885
• Equity at exit: $26,321

Cash invested: $85,238 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.7 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $267,990 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,566/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,663

Max offer price $213,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-416	-5% $-521	+0% $-626	+5% $-732	+10% $-837
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-700	+0% $-626	+5% $-553	+10% $-479
Rate	-1.0pp $-473	-0.5pp $-549	base $-626	+0.5pp $-705	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,105
• Closing costs: $9,133
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	93d	1	0.11mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	93d	1	0.12mi
608 Magnum Force Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	22d	1	0.13mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	9d	1	0.23mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	53d	1	0.39mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	52d	1	0.39mi
120 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$1,875	$0.98	73d	1	0.42mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	71d	1	0.42mi
376 Rae Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	17d	1	0.42mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	22d	1	0.43mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,725	$1.09	29d	1	0.43mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	53d	1	0.50mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	73d	1	0.52mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	93d	1	0.52mi
233 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	21d	1	0.55mi
128 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	31d	1	0.56mi
112 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,745	$0.89	93d	1	0.58mi
617 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,795	$1.07	17d	1	0.61mi
636 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	28d	1	0.65mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	93d	1	0.65mi
140 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$1,840	$1.13	27d	1	0.66mi
125 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	52d	1	0.66mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	40d	1	0.70mi
465 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,750	$1.14	67d	1	0.74mi
116 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,500	$1.30	18d	1	0.74mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	18d	1	0.77mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	73d	1	0.78mi
195 Outlaw Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,799	$1.14	93d	1	0.78mi
2131 County Road 314 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.80mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	64d	1	0.81mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	41d	1	0.84mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	53d	1	0.91mi
137 Hematite Ln Unit 1 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	27d	1	1.01mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	67d	1	1.06mi
344 Circle Way Unit 35E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,575	$1.13	21d	1	1.08mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	60d	1	1.09mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,695	$0.92	27d	1	1.14mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	69d	1	1.15mi
108 Igneous Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	61d	1	1.15mi
316 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$1,800	$0.94	41d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $237,990 Active 1002 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $237,990 Active 1001 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $237,990 Active 1000 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $236,990 Active 999 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $236,990 Active 996 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $236,990 Active 995 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $236,990 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $236,990 Active 993 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $236,990 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $236,990 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $236,990 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $236,990 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $236,990 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $236,990 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,990 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,990 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $236,990 Active 981 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $236,990 Active 980 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $236,990 Active 979 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $236,990 Active 978 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $236,990 Active 977 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $236,990 Active 976 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $232,990 Active 975 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $232,990 Active 974 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $232,990 Active 972 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $232,990 Active 971 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 970 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $232,990 Active 968 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $232,990 Active 967 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 966 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,990 Active 965 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,990 Active 964 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,990 Active 963 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,990 Active 962 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $229,990 Active 961 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $229,990 Active 959 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,990 Active 957 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,990 Active 956 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,990 Active 953 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,990 Active 952 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,990 Active 951 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,990 Active 950 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,990 Active 948 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,990 Active 944 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,990 Active 943 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 942 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $229,990 Active 939 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,990 Active 938 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,990 Active 937 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,052
• − Property taxes: −$4,566
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$8,856
• Taxable loss: −$13,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,610–$22,830 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior and interior. The property has potential for further value increases through painting, landscaping, smart home features, and kitchen appliance upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $292,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $292,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2023-12-02 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $284,990 Zillow