978 Gibraltar Rd · Key Largo, FL 33037

$680,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1984 5,125 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous opportunity to own an income producing property with a legal duplex in peaceful Key Largo location surrounded by mostly single family homes. Close to Pennekamp Park and beach, 2 bedrooms 1 bath on each side of the duplex. Live in one side and rent out the other without paying the price for paradise.

Key facts

• 5,125 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two total units; Tenants pay common area maintenance, cable TV, electricity, sewer and water; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available; Two separate electric meters; Two separate water meters
• Home design: Duplex; Two stories; Resale property
• Construction: Concrete and other construction materials; Building has 2 stories
• Exterior features: Flat roof; Piling foundation; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface; Publicly maintained road; Not waterfront

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceramic tile flooring; Laundry in common area
• Laundry & utility: Shared/common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $680k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $614k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $543k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $543k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.5% in Key Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#337 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Key Largo School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 773 students, 55% FRL); Coral Shores High School (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 767 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 430 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,427/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($670k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $680k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $542,700 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-134,280
• Equity at exit: $101,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-149,015
• Equity at exit: $58,794

Cash invested: $190,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33037

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 430
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,566
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,605/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,140
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,898

Max offer price $614,233

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-180	+0% $-372	+5% $-565	+10% $-757
Rent	-10% $-801	-5% $-587	+0% $-372	+5% $-158	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-199	base $-372	+0.5pp $-548	+1.0pp $-728

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,428
Total (2 units)			$5,427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,000
• Closing costs: $20,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $680,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $680,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $680,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $680,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $680,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $680,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $680,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $680,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $680,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $680,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $680,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $680,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $680,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $680,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $680,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $680,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $680,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $680,000 Active
19. 2022-03-14
    soldstatus $400,000
20. 2013-10-11
    soldstatus $196,300 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Fabulous opportunity to own an income producing property with a legal duplex in peaceful Key Largo location surrounded by mostly single family homes. Close to Pennekamp Park and beach, 2 bedrooms 1 bath on each side of the duplex. Live in one side and rent out the other without paying the price for paradise.

21. 2013-07-18
    listed $184,900 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Fabulous opportunity to own an income producing property with a legal duplex in peaceful Key Largo location surrounded by mostly single family homes. Close to Pennekamp Park and beach, 2 bedrooms 1 bath on each side of the duplex. Live in one side and rent out the other without paying the price for paradise.

22. 2005-10-28
    historical
23. 2004-12-15
    listed $414,500
24. 2004-04-20
    soldstatus $350,000
25. 2004-04-20
    soldstatus $350,000
26. 2004-04-14
    soldstatus $350,000
27. 2003-11-20
    listed $365,000
28. 2003-10-08
    listed $365,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,605 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,644 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,039/yr (+$87/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,091
• − Property taxes: −$4,605
• − Insurance: −$8,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,210
• − Management: −$5,210
• − Depreciation: −$19,782
• Taxable loss: −$16,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,910
• After-tax cash flow: $-557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Key Largo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #5850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Key Largo, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• City population: 14,770
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,770
• Household income: $86,533
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -369.26%
• Current HPI: 193.7864
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.92%
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+86.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $680,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-11 Sold (MLS) $196,300 FLKMLS
• 2013-07-18 Listed $184,900 FLKMLS
• 2005-10-28 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2004-12-15 Listed $414,500 FLKMLS
• 2004-04-20 Sold (MLS) $350,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-04-20 Sold (MLS) $350,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-20 Listed $365,000 FLKMLS
• 2003-10-08 Listed $365,000 FLKMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,605 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.