815 Grant St · Sturgis, KY 42459

$52,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment or starter home Close to Sturgis Elementary.

Key facts

• Investment home
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Listed 126 days

Tags

• INVESTMENT HOME
• CLOSE TO STURGIS ELEMENTARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sturgis Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 369 students, 60% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.26%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,536
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 North Kelsey St	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,368 (+5%)	23mo	$105,000	$77	66
809 N Lee St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,214 (-7%)	23mo	$130,000	$107	61
1401 N Monroe St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,364 (+5%)	5mo	$89,900	$66	61
1224 N Lee St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,129 (-13%)	5mo	$95,000	$84	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $8,904
• Equity at exit: $7,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $30,049
• Equity at exit: $4,706

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42459

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $453

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 N Kelsey St Unit E6 Sturgis, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$795	$0.84	43d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $52,000
3. 2026-04-01
   price $65,000
4. 2026-03-09
   price $61,000
5. 2026-03-03
   price $60,000
6. 2026-02-18
   price $61,000
7. 2026-02-04
   price $62,000
8. 2026-01-20
   price $63,000
9. 2026-01-06
   price $64,000
10. 2025-12-11
    listed $65,000 Active
11. 2009-09-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $2,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$616
• After-tax cash flow: $2,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Sturgis

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #9856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sturgis, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,965

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.95%
• Current HPI: 180.9754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+15.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — HABOR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $52,000 HABOR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $65,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $61,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $60,000 HABOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $61,000 HABOR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $62,000 HABOR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $63,000 HABOR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $64,000 HABOR
• 2025-12-11 Listed $65,000 HABOR
• 2009-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.