4852 Autumn Ln NW · Roanoke, VA 24017

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 0.31 ac lot $133/sqft · 19% above area Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Solid Ranch. Close to amenities. Large Living Room, Eat-in-Kitchen with Tile Flooring and Appliances Included. Refinished Hardwood Floors, Finished Lower Level with lots of Storage Space, Replacement Windows, New Roof 2012, Deck, Fenced Yard, Wonderful Garden Space. Priced Below Assessment for Quick Sale.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include nearby restaurant and trail access

Exterior

• Parking: Three open parking spaces; Off-street parking available
• Utilities: Electric heat pump for heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1960
• Construction: Year built: 1960
• Exterior features: Front porch; Off-street parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric) providing heating and cooling
• Interior features: Built-in microwave oven; Storage; Wood doors; Insulated, tilt-in windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 505 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 642 students, 99% FRL); Patrick Henry High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 2,005 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 67% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,796/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,634 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,235
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -10.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4925 Oak Rd NW	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (-4%)	0mo	$221,500	$155	82
5204 Salem Tpke NW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$107	78
4509 Autumn Ln NW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-4%)	4mo	$299,950	$208	71
4917 Autumn Ln NW	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,694 (+13%)	10mo	$205,000	$121	67
232 Eugene Dr NW	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,590 (+6%)	5mo	$317,500	$200	62
3871 Long Meadow Ave NW	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,537 (+2%)	3mo	$180,000	$117	61
3915 Wilmont Ave NW	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,529 (+2%)	1mo	$255,000	$167	60
848 Gatling Ln NW	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,434 (-4%)	9mo	$293,440	$205	59
3907 Wilmont Ave NW	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,500 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$163	58
845 Pinewood Dr NW	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,405 (-6%)	8mo	$251,000	$179	51
4305 Camille Ave NW	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-14%)	4mo	$259,950	$202	42
5038 Morwanda St NW	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	10mo	$230,000	$135	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,345
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,981
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24017

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,305/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4626 Autumn Ln NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,999	$1.42	13d	1	0.23mi
900 Camelot Dr Salem, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	905	$1,760	$1.94	13d	10	0.45mi
3802 Panorama Ave NW #12 Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	0.91mi
3807 Brandon Ave SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	2	1.45mi
928 Ohio Ave Salem, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,622	$2.64	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 793-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active 793-char remark
3. 2016-08-18
   soldstatus $87,100 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Nice Solid Ranch. Close to amenities. Large Living Room, Eat-in-Kitchen with Tile Flooring and Appliances Included. Refinished Hardwood Floors, Finished Lower Level with lots of Storage Space, Replacement Windows, New Roof 2012, Deck, Fenced Yard, Wonderful Garden Space. Priced Below Assessment for Quick Sale.

4. 2016-08-09
   soldstatus $87,100
5. 2016-04-29
   listed $87,950 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Nice Solid Ranch. Close to amenities. Large Living Room, Eat-in-Kitchen with Tile Flooring and Appliances Included. Refinished Hardwood Floors, Finished Lower Level with lots of Storage Space, Replacement Windows, New Roof 2012, Deck, Fenced Yard, Wonderful Garden Space. Priced Below Assessment for Quick Sale.

6. 2015-10-27
   historical
7. 2015-05-01
   listed $92,950
8. 2013-11-21
   historical
9. 2013-05-21
   listed $102,500
10. 2010-11-29
    historical
11. 2010-06-01
    listed $118,950
12. 2010-05-20
    historical
13. 2009-11-23
    listed $124,950
14. 1999-05-06
    soldstatus $32,950
15. 1988-06-15
    soldstatus $44,950
16. 1986-08-18
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,305
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $1,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103300
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #3639
• State rank: #102 of 131 in VA

Livability — Roanoke

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #5055

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roanoke, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 168,930
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 23,678
• Household income: $47,360
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,094 people
• By 2030: 108,927 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 114,104 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 118,032 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 123,363 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 116,827 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.6) · D 61.1% · R 37.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 23.4pp · 2024: 23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.6 2020: D+25.8 2016: D+17.6 2012: D+21.5 2008: D+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.29%
• Current HPI: 198.5991
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+344.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $200,000 MLSRV
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 MLSRV
• 2016-08-18 Sold (MLS) $87,100 MLSRV
• 2016-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $87,100 Public Records
• 2016-04-29 Listed $87,950 MLSRV
• 2015-10-27 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2015-05-01 Listed $92,950 MLSRV
• 2013-11-21 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2013-05-21 Listed $102,500 MLSRV
• 2010-11-29 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2010-06-01 Listed $118,950 MLSRV
• 2010-05-20 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2009-11-23 Listed $124,950 MLSRV
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,950 Public Records
• 1988-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $44,950 Public Records
• 1986-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,305 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.