1812 2nd St NW · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,163 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1995 4,182 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Highest and best due Sunday January 17th 2021 at 5:00

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Updated kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MAINTENANCE FREE PROPERTY
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($531/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $189k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,495 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,277
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,791
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,940/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $98	+0% $44	+5% $-9	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-20	+0% $44	+5% $108	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $92	base $44	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.07mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	25d	1	0.10mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	25d	1	0.13mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	0.13mi
235 Palmetto Ave NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,195	$1.17	25d	1	0.17mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	25d	1	0.17mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.38mi
700 Mirror Ter NW #705 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,500	$1.26	5d	1	0.56mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	25d	1	0.61mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	16d	1	0.73mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	25d	1	0.80mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	0.87mi
720 6th St NW Unit 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$700	$0.95	25d	1	0.87mi
720 6th St NW Unit 1 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$750	$1.01	25d	1	0.87mi
2000 15th Ct NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	4d	1	1.02mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	5d	1	1.02mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	25d	1	1.12mi
136 Avenue C NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,099	$1.47	25d	1	1.13mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	16d	1	1.20mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	5d	1	1.23mi
430 Avenue B NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	866	$1,275	$1.47	25d	1	1.24mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	16d	1	1.26mi
163 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	854	$1,250	$1.46	25d	1	1.36mi
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	25d	1	1.37mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	5d	1	1.39mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	25d	1	1.39mi
209 Avenue B SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	16d	1	1.43mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	25d	1	1.43mi
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $189,000
3. 2026-02-09
   price $199,000
4. 2026-01-29
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2026-01-09
   soldstatus $100,000
6. 2021-02-19
   soldstatus $9,000 Sold 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Highest and best due Sunday January 17th 2021 at 5:00

7. 2021-01-22
   status Pending 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Highest and best due Sunday January 17th 2021 at 5:00

8. 2021-01-16
   historical 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Highest and best due Sunday January 17th 2021 at 5:00

9. 2021-01-12
   listed $25,000 Active 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Highest and best due Sunday January 17th 2021 at 5:00

10. 1996-01-26
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,940
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+256.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-19 Sold (MLS) $9,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-12 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,940 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.