1508 Grafton St · Marshall, TX 75670

$22,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1940 7,579 sqft lot $23/sqft · 22% above area Est $18k · 22% over ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

Key facts

• 7,579 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.9% vs local median 4.6% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#451 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (49%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,150 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 137.75%
• DSCR: 7.13
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18,375
• List price: $22,500
• Delta: 22.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $42,451
• Equity at exit: $3,355

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.31×
• Total profit: $96,423
• Equity at exit: $1,945

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75670

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $710/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $236

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $730	+0% $723	+5% $717	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $678	+0% $723	+5% $769	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $735	-0.5pp $729	base $723	+0.5pp $717	+1.0pp $711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $22,500 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,500 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $22,500 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $23,800 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $23,800 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $23,800 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $23,800 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $23,800 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $23,800 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $23,800 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $23,800 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $23,800 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,800 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $23,800 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $24,900 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

17. 2026-04-27
    status Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

18. 2026-04-16
    price $27,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $33,900 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

20. 2026-03-30
    price $38,900 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

21. 2026-03-26
    listed $43,900 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED JUST FOR YOU! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property is priced just right and offers strong potential for a rental or profitable flip. With a little vision and updates, this home can truly shine. Sold AS-IS. Don’t miss out, schedule your showing today! All listing information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified by the buyer and buyer’s agent. Buyer to perform all due diligence.

22. 2000-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$710
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $8,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #9156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshall, TX
• County: Harrison County · 18,670 people
• City population: 18,670
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,670
• Household income: $42,386
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.33%
• Current HPI: 100.3741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $24,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $27,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $33,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $38,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $43,900 NTREIS
• 2000-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $710 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.