425 W Sierra Ave #9 · Cotati, CA 94931

$229,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition Est $246k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2024, this beautifully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,280 square feet of modern living space and may be just what you've been searching for. A welcoming front porch leads into the light and bright living room, creating an inviting atmosphere from the moment you arrive. The spacious kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, abundant counter and cabinet space, and an eat-up bar that opens seamlessly to the dining area, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while recessed lighting, carpeted bedrooms, and beautiful wood-like flooring add warmth and

Key facts

• Front porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Established gardens

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• ESTABLISHED GARDENS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,200
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Park lot is leased
• Construction: Champion Home Builders model CM 8603D; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Located in a manufactured-home park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Stone counters in the kitchen; Dining and living areas combined; Living room with other/undefined special feature
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $749 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.3% in Cotati — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in CA, #3,115 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #205 of 517 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.96%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,760
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 W Sierra Ave #9	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	13mo	$204,950	$160	89
18 Terrace Dr #18	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	19mo	$204,950	$164	79
31 Ramble Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	17mo	$240,000	$192	66
103 Silver Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-8%)	22mo	$290,000	$246	60
522 Loma Verde Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-8%)	15mo	$275,000	$234	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,503
• Equity at exit: $34,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $70,774
• Equity at exit: $19,882

Cash invested: $64,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94931

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,449/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $229,950

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,488
• Closing costs: $6,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8908 Gravenstein Way Cotati, CA	4.0	3.0	1540	$3,650	$2.37	14d	1	0.80mi
8271 Lancaster Dr Cotati, CA	3.0	3.5	1614	$3,500	$2.17	21d	1	1.04mi
7300 Boris Ct Unit 4 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	1.10mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	21d	1	1.10mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	43d	1	1.10mi
7300 Boris Ct Unit 4 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	23d	1	1.10mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	23d	1	1.10mi
445 Southwest Blvd Unit 10 Rohnert Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,699	$2.16	43d	1	1.13mi
8545 Liman Way Rohnert Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$3,600	$3.21	43d	1	1.16mi
8244 Windmill Farms Dr Unit 1 Cotati, CA	2.0	1.5	989	$2,400	$2.43	43d	1	1.38mi
100 Avram Ave Rohnert Park, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$3,400	$2.68	3d	1	1.43mi
7272 Camino Colegio Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,500	$2.98	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,950 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,950 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,950 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,950 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,950 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,950 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $229,950 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,881
• − Property taxes: −$3,449
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,842
• − Management: −$2,842
• − Depreciation: −$6,689
• Taxable income: $5,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $7,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers modern living space and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace worn-out carpet — Improves comfort and value.
• Both Replace worn-out wood-like flooring — Improves comfort and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out carpet — Improves comfort and value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out wood-like flooring — Improves comfort and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609940
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $60,499
• Composite: 37.42/100
• National rank: #4420
• State rank: #205 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cotati

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #3115

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cotati, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 9,487
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,487
• Household income: $101,994
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 215.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Native American 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.26%
• Current HPI: 236.0125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $239,000 BAREIS