612 NE Winding Trail Ln · Ankeny, IA 50021

$249,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Condo · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 $188/sqft · 24% below area Est $328k · 24% under $175/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Builder incentive package for the first 5 units sold! This promotion includes full white vinyl blinds, one year of pre-paid HOA dues, and closing costs paid with preferred lender. Offers must be non-contingent and scheduled to close within 60 days of the agreement. Welcome to quality, affordable living at Deer Creek rowhomes, just minutes from the interstate and all Ankeny has to offer. End unit open concept main floor features a spacious great room with electric fireplace and half bath. Large black framed windows offer tons of natural light. Kitchen has LVP flooring, an abundance of cabinetry, quartz countertops, and island plus a dining area. Fridge, stove, dishwasher, microwave, washer and dryer all included! Upstairs in the Dalton plan is a separate laundry room, 2 bathrooms and 2 bedrooms. Working at home? Easy for a bedroom to function as your private office space or gym. Primary suite complete with walk in closet and bathroom with shower. Attached 2 car garage, landscaping and open patio for your outdoor enjoyment. No more yard work or snow shoveling, exterior maintenance/ lawn care is provided for you. Irrigation and trash is included in monthly HOA dues. Mi-Fiber internet. Home warranty included. Excellent Ankeny schools. Jerry's Homes is a local builder and has been building homes since 1957.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Black framed windows
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• BLACK FRAMED WINDOWS
• LVP FLOORING
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Ankeny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#3 in IA, #29 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Ankeny Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #15 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #363 of 616 statewide, top 62%, 413 students, 37% FRL); Parkview Middle School (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 246 statewide, top 16%, 867 students, 23% FRL); Ankeny High School (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A, #30 of 336 statewide, top 9%, 1,347 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 10% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 712 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,985 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,488
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -23.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-75,649
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-120,413
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50021

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $178,139

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-410	+0% $-497	+5% $-583	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-637	-5% $-567	+0% $-497	+5% $-426	+10% $-356
Rate	-1.0pp $-371	-0.5pp $-433	base $-497	+0.5pp $-561	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 NE Pearl Dr Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,395	$1.64	45d	1	0.25mi
4342 NE Spear Ln Unit 4342 Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1511	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	0.54mi
1219 NE Windsor Dr Unit 1219-208 Ankeny, IA	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,350	$1.24	46d	1	1.34mi
1103 NE 7th Ln Ankeny, IA	3.0	3.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	16d	1	1.37mi
1108 NE 7th Ln Ankeny, IA	2.0	3.0	1106	$1,550	$1.40	16d	1	1.37mi
1211 NE Windsor Dr #208 Ankeny, IA	2.0	2.0	1048	$995	$0.95	45d	1	1.39mi
4200 NE 17th Ln Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,818	$1.28	16d	3	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: trashelectricinternetlandscapingexterior maint.gym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,990 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    price $249,990 1323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

    Builder incentive package for the first 5 units sold! This promotion includes full white vinyl blinds, one year of pre-paid HOA dues, and closing costs paid with preferred lender. Offers must be non-contingent and scheduled to close within 60 days of the agreement. Welcome to quality, affordable living at Deer Creek rowhomes, just minutes from the interstate and all Ankeny has to offer. End unit open concept main floor features a spacious great room with electric fireplace and half bath. Large black framed windows offer tons of natural light. Kitchen has LVP flooring, an abundance of cabinetry, quartz countertops, and island plus a dining area. Fridge, stove, dishwasher, microwave, washer and dryer all included! Upstairs in the Dalton plan is a separate laundry room, 2 bathrooms and 2 bedrooms. Working at home? Easy for a bedroom to function as your private office space or gym. Primary suite complete with walk in closet and bathroom with shower. Attached 2 car garage, landscaping and open patio for your outdoor enjoyment. No more yard work or snow shoveling, exterior maintenance/ lawn care is provided for you. Irrigation and trash is included in monthly HOA dues. Mi-Fiber internet. Home warranty included. Excellent Ankeny schools. Jerry's Homes is a local builder and has been building homes since 1957.

18. 2026-02-17
    listed $254,990 Active 1323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

    Builder incentive package for the first 5 units sold! This promotion includes full white vinyl blinds, one year of pre-paid HOA dues, and closing costs paid with preferred lender. Offers must be non-contingent and scheduled to close within 60 days of the agreement. Welcome to quality, affordable living at Deer Creek rowhomes, just minutes from the interstate and all Ankeny has to offer. End unit open concept main floor features a spacious great room with electric fireplace and half bath. Large black framed windows offer tons of natural light. Kitchen has LVP flooring, an abundance of cabinetry, quartz countertops, and island plus a dining area. Fridge, stove, dishwasher, microwave, washer and dryer all included! Upstairs in the Dalton plan is a separate laundry room, 2 bathrooms and 2 bedrooms. Working at home? Easy for a bedroom to function as your private office space or gym. Primary suite complete with walk in closet and bathroom with shower. Attached 2 car garage, landscaping and open patio for your outdoor enjoyment. No more yard work or snow shoveling, exterior maintenance/ lawn care is provided for you. Irrigation and trash is included in monthly HOA dues. Mi-Fiber internet. Home warranty included. Excellent Ankeny schools. Jerry's Homes is a local builder and has been building homes since 1957.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$10,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ankeny Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1903690
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $75,384
• Composite: 70.91/100
• National rank: #246
• State rank: #15 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ankeny

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #29

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ankeny, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 76,589
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 30,283
• Household income: $99,572
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 472.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.38%
• Current HPI: 208.945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $249,990 DMMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $254,990 DMMLS