11 San Felipe · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily · 275 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to our innovative & beautifully designed 1-bedroom Braden model on a private lot. Featuring concrete block construction, quartz countertops, impact windows, & a metal roof- this home offers both style & durability for those seeking to downsize without compromising value and quality. Enjoy an open-concept living area, full-size washer/dryer in a spacious laundry room, an ample kitchen with stainless steel appliances and a well-appointed bedroom, closet and rear covered porch. All models are built with 3/16th true plywood roof sheathing, hurricane tie straps, R-30 insulation, & hip roof designs ensuring big insurance premium discounts. Our homes are equipped with

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Metal roof
• Impact windows

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• METAL ROOF
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULL-SIZE WASHER DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Community is a senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis and pickleball courts, bocce, shuffleboard, putting green, golf course, dog park, park, picnic area, library, game room, billiard room and sauna; Association covers maintenance of grounds, trash, common areas and golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener and golf cart garage; Approximately 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Sewer and water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; To be built; One-story; Property faces south (direction faces); Living area reported from plans
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction; Metal roof; Built by Wynne Building Corporation (Braden model)
• Exterior features: Covered and open patios; Patio and porch; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a laundry closet

🏗️ New construction. The $199,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-670/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,109 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,400
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6506 Deland Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+6%)	15mo	$250,000	$248	55
5800 Winter Garden Pkwy	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	864 (-9%)	15mo	$170,000	$197	51
7502 Pacific Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,006 (+6%)	7mo	$213,000	$212	46
6905 Bayard Rd	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+13%)	11mo	$305,000	$284	42
5753 Deer Run Dr Unit 1G	0.69mi	2/2.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	23mo	$180,000	$184	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,168
• Equity at exit: $30,029

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,973
• Equity at exit: $17,413

Cash invested: $56,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,056
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,021/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $193,316

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $14	+0% $-56	+5% $-125	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-123	+0% $-56	+5% $11	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-5	base $-56	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,350
• Closing costs: $6,042
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2025-09-19
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,021
• − Insurance: −$1,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,859
• Taxable loss: −$4,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Listed $199,000 Beaches MLS