241 County Road 2226 · Lone Star, TX 75638

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1976 Poor condition $79/sqft · 48% below area Est $241k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate property located at 241 CR 2226 in Daingerfield, Texas (75638). Just minutes away from the public boat ramp on Ellison Creek Reservoir, this property offers convenient access to fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation. Being sold as-is with no additional disclosures available. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence regarding utilities, structures, and land use.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1976
• Listed 278 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#786 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Daingerfield-Lone Star ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #679 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,791
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -48.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,481
• Equity at exit: $56,977

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $74,027
• Equity at exit: $88,414

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75638

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2025-09-13
    listed $125,000 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Estate property located at 241 CR 2226 in Daingerfield, Texas (75638). Just minutes away from the public boat ramp on Ellison Creek Reservoir, this property offers convenient access to fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation. Being sold as-is with no additional disclosures available. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence regarding utilities, structures, and land use.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,170/yr (+$98/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$100
• After-tax cash flow: $1,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof and exterior siding, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and potential leaks
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in poor condition
• Minor driveway — Dirt and debris, simple cleaning needed

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — Critical to prevent water damage and improve curb appeal
• Resale New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the structure
• Both Interior updates — Improves living conditions and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
driveway · Dirt and debris, simple cleaning needed	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New roof — Critical to prevent water damage and improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the structure ↑
• Both Interior updates — Improves living conditions and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daingerfield-Lone Star ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7877
• State rank: #679 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lone Star

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #14389

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,363

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,628 people
• By 2030: 11,126 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 10,181 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 9,408 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 8,268 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 7,463 · -35.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morris

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.2) · D 24.1% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -51.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.2 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Current HPI: 186.7313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Listed $125,000 LAAR