3204 Channing Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$89,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1973 4,500 sqft lot Est $115k · 22% under $143/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needing a handicap accessible home for winter or year around living, than stop and look at this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star 55+ active community with low monthly fee, with year round heated pool and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014 except the bedroom. Finished and enclosed front porch. Nice outside patio for outside entertaining. Roof over 5 years ago. Heat and air new in 2015. Lift to side door new in 2019.

Key facts

• Outside patio
• Updated home
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• OUTSIDE PATIO
• LIFT TO SIDE DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,716
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Property Management; Monthly association fee of $143; Association fees cover common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities and trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, sidewalks, street lights; Community restrictions and deed restrictions apply; buyer approval required; Vehicle restrictions (no truck/RV/motorcycle parking), golf carts allowed; Handicap modified / wheelchair access; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK; max pet weight 25 lbs; breed restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Ground-level parking pad; Tandem parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Underground utilities
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces west; Completed condition; Exterior wheelchair lift
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Shed(s); Landscaped; Level lot; Near public transit; Asphalt road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $90k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.49%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3406 Lanark Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	576 (+4%)	12mo	$120,000	$208	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,538
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,026
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $287	+0% $262	+5% $237	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $211	+0% $262	+5% $313	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $285	base $262	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,099	$1.28	0d	7	0.71mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,176	$1.14	3d	13	0.79mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	16d	1	0.97mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.97mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	25d	1	1.06mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	25d	1	1.13mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	18d	1	1.14mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	1.16mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	16d	1	1.25mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.34mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	1.36mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.36mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.37mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    listed $89,900 Active
15. 2021-02-12
    soldstatus $55,900 Sold 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Needing a handicap accessible home for winter or year around living, than stop and look at this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star 55+ active community with low monthly fee, with year round heated pool and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014 except the bedroom. Finished and enclosed front porch. Nice outside patio for outside entertaining. Roof over 5 years ago. Heat and air new in 2015. Lift to side door new in 2019.

16. 2021-02-12
    soldstatus $55,900

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Needing a handicap accessible home for winter or year around living, than stop and look at this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star 55+ active community with low monthly fee, with year round heated pool and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014 except the bedroom. Finished and enclosed front porch. Nice outside patio for outside entertaining. Roof over 5 years ago. Heat and air new in 2015. Lift to side door new in 2019.

17. 2021-01-28
    status Pending 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Needing a handicap accessible home for winter or year around living, than stop and look at this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star 55+ active community with low monthly fee, with year round heated pool and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014 except the bedroom. Finished and enclosed front porch. Nice outside patio for outside entertaining. Roof over 5 years ago. Heat and air new in 2015. Lift to side door new in 2019.

18. 2021-01-26
    listed $55,900 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Needing a handicap accessible home for winter or year around living, than stop and look at this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star 55+ active community with low monthly fee, with year round heated pool and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014 except the bedroom. Finished and enclosed front porch. Nice outside patio for outside entertaining. Roof over 5 years ago. Heat and air new in 2015. Lift to side door new in 2019.

19. 2020-06-23
    soldstatus $49,000
20. 2020-06-22
    soldstatus $49,000 Sold 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Wanting a home away from home? Check out this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star active park. Heated year around pool, and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014. Nice outside Patio for outside entertaining. Great seasonal or year around home to enjoy. Also finished includes front porch, utility shed houses the washer and dryer. New roof over 4 years old and new heat and air conditioner 6 years old.

21. 2020-05-08
    status Pending 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Wanting a home away from home? Check out this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star active park. Heated year around pool, and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014. Nice outside Patio for outside entertaining. Great seasonal or year around home to enjoy. Also finished includes front porch, utility shed houses the washer and dryer. New roof over 4 years old and new heat and air conditioner 6 years old.

22. 2020-04-27
    listed $49,500 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Wanting a home away from home? Check out this neat and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath updated home in a 5 star active park. Heated year around pool, and shuttle board. Floors were repaired and replaced in 2014. Nice outside Patio for outside entertaining. Great seasonal or year around home to enjoy. Also finished includes front porch, utility shed houses the washer and dryer. New roof over 4 years old and new heat and air conditioner 6 years old.

23. 2014-07-01
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold
24. 2014-06-10
    historical
25. 2014-04-14
    status Pending
26. 2014-04-14
    status Pending
27. 2014-04-14
    price $21,500
28. 2013-10-10
    listed $27,000 Active
29. 1997-03-06
    soldstatus $28,000
30. 1986-11-01
    soldstatus $16,500
31. 1979-04-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1698.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 2021-02-12 Sold (MLS) $55,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-26 Listed $55,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-22 Sold (MLS) $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-27 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-01 Sold (MLS) $18,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-14 Price Changed $21,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-10 Listed $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.