306 N Grove Cir · Flowood, MS 39047

$194,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1989 3,920 sqft lot $183/sqft · 9% above area Est $201k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this adorable 3 bedroom home featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the open family room which offers a wood burning fireplace. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and can be used as a walk-in pantry as well. The large primary loft bedroom features a walk in closet and a primary bath with new walk-in shower. In addition there an extra niche space for a computer area or extra storage or closed in for a second walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms downstairs. The fully fenced private backyard has a covered patio and a storeroom. Other pluses include a newer roof, refrigerator, and new microwave. This home is located close to the Reservoir which offers fishing, boating and entertainment.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New walk-in shower
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• WALK IN PANTRY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• NEW WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,976 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.33%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,059
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -3.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 N Grove Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,048 (-2%)	7mo	$175,000	$167	80
308 N Grove Circle Cir	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (+8%)	8mo	$169,000	$147	71
14 S Brandy Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+7%)	3mo	$167,500	$146	70
12 S Brandy Ct	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	970 (-9%)	12mo	$150,000	$155	55
142 Cumberland Rd Unit B	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	927 (-13%)	17mo	$150,000	$162	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,606
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,093
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,456/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $388	+0% $333	+5% $278	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $255	+0% $333	+5% $411	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $383	base $333	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
183 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,750	$1.60	22d	1	0.15mi
154 Plum Tree Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,931	$1.50	24d	1	0.56mi
520 Vine Dr Flowood, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1114	$1,745	$1.57	15d	8	1.09mi
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$2,052	$1.59	15d	6	1.18mi
352 Brendalwood Cv Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1248	$1,157	$0.93	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $194,900 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Move right into this adorable 3 bedroom home featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the open family room which offers a wood burning fireplace. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and can be used as a walk-in pantry as well. The large primary loft bedroom features a walk in closet and a primary bath with new walk-in shower. In addition there an extra niche space for a computer area or extra storage or closed in for a second walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms downstairs. The fully fenced private backyard has a covered patio and a storeroom. Other pluses include a newer roof, refrigerator, and new microwave. This home is located close to the Reservoir which offers fishing, boating and entertainment.

2. 2026-04-19
   listed $199,900 Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Move right into this adorable 3 bedroom home featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the open family room which offers a wood burning fireplace. The laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and can be used as a walk-in pantry as well. The large primary loft bedroom features a walk in closet and a primary bath with new walk-in shower. In addition there an extra niche space for a computer area or extra storage or closed in for a second walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms downstairs. The fully fenced private backyard has a covered patio and a storeroom. Other pluses include a newer roof, refrigerator, and new microwave. This home is located close to the Reservoir which offers fishing, boating and entertainment.

3. 2021-10-08
   historical
4. 2010-02-19
   soldstatus
5. 2009-08-12
   listed $94,900
6. 2008-04-22
   historical
7. 2008-04-22
   historical
8. 2008-01-10
   soldstatus
9. 2007-10-23
   listed $122,900
10. 2007-09-03
    listed $123,900
11. 2007-07-07
    listed $124,900
12. 2006-02-01
    listed $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,456 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,540 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$84/yr (+$7/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$1,456
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $3,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+80.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $194,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Listed $199,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2010-02-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-08-12 Listed $94,900 MLSU
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2008-01-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-10-23 Listed $122,900 MLSU
• 2007-09-03 Listed $123,900 MLSU
• 2007-07-07 Listed $124,900 MLSU
• 2006-02-01 Listed $108,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,456 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.