2802 S 5th Ave #17 · Union Gap, WA 98903

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition $85/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2021,ideally located in the heart of Union Gap. This home features a modern layout that seamlesslyconnects the kitchen, dining, and living areas--perfect for both everyday living andentertaining. Enjoy contemporary finishes throughout, along with a spacious primary suite complete with aprivate bathroom. With its newer construction, thoughtful design, and excellent condition, thishome is truly move-in ready and offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Conveniently situated just minutes from shopping, dining, and easy freeway access, this homeprovides both modern living and prime location

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.5% in Union Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#315 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Gap School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Union Gap School (577 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.22%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,979
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -57.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2203 S 5th Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,424 (+5%)	8mo	$250,000	$176	49
2208 S 3rd Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-12%)	2mo	$332,400	$278	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $27,855
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $84,049
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $763	+0% $730	+5% $698	+10% $665
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $658	+0% $730	+5% $802	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $788	-0.5pp $760	base $730	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Samantha Ct Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,900	$1.32	23d	1	0.68mi
2212 S 1st Ave Unit 1-3 Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	15d	1	0.69mi
1917 Landon Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	46d	1	1.03mi
809 W Washington Ave Yakima, WA	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	15d	1	1.15mi
1106 Spokane St Yakima, WA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	23d	1	1.30mi
1606 S 1st Ave Unit 1 Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	911	$1,250	$1.37	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $115,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-03-11
    listed $115,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2021,ideally located in the heart of Union Gap. This home features a modern layout that seamlesslyconnects the kitchen, dining, and living areas--perfect for both everyday living andentertaining. Enjoy contemporary finishes throughout, along with a spacious primary suite complete with aprivate bathroom. With its newer construction, thoughtful design, and excellent condition, thishome is truly move-in ready and offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. Conveniently situated just minutes from shopping, dining, and easy freeway access, this homeprovides both modern living and prime location

11. 2025-09-29
    price $118,000
12. 2025-08-20
    price $130,000
13. 2025-06-23
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 63.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $7,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a small front porch — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing a welcoming entryway

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing a welcoming entryway ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Gap School District
• NCES district ID: 5309150
• Math proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,603
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #4614
• State rank: #105 of 291 in WA

Livability — Union Gap

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #11294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Gap, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010

Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $115,000 YAMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $118,000 YAMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $130,000 YAMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $135,000 YAMLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $689 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.