Chappell Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$209,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $209,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $232,716.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,196 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,716
• List price: $209,999
• Delta: -9.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Muscovy Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$215,990	$171	86
184 Pink Footed Pass	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+1%)	2mo	$203,490	$168	76
204 Pink Footed Pass	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+1%)	4mo	$205,490	$169	75
134 Schuenemann Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	5mo	$233,990	$183	61
192 Pink Footed Pass	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	2mo	$202,490	$150	58
127 Orange Flame Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,329 (+11%)	2mo	$219,990	$166	57
1197 Celosia Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-10%)	4mo	$209,990	$193	56
143 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	2mo	$207,490	$153	55
212 Pink Footed Pass	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	5mo	$208,490	$154	54
105 Celosia Loop	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-10%)	4mo	$209,990	$193	54
183 Pink Footed Pass	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	5mo	$205,490	$149	50
1902 High Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	5mo	$345,000	$257	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-59,941
• Equity at exit: $34,699

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-93,529
• Equity at exit: $20,121

Cash invested: $65,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $225,999 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 160 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,491/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $193,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-191	+0% $-272	+5% $-352	+10% $-432
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-338	+0% $-272	+5% $-205	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-212	base $-272	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,179
• Closing costs: $6,981
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	93d	1	0.50mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	73d	1	0.50mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	73d	1	0.50mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,349	$0.89	13d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $209,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $209,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $209,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $209,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $209,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $209,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $209,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $209,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $209,999 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $209,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $209,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $209,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $209,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $209,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $209,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $209,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $209,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $209,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $209,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $209,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $209,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $209,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $209,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $209,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $209,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $209,999 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $209,999 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $209,999 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $209,999 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $209,999 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $209,999 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $209,999 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $209,999 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $209,999 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $209,999 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $209,999 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $209,999 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $209,999 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,999 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,999 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,999 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,999 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,036
• − Property taxes: −$3,491
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$6,770
• Taxable loss: −$7,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems, and offers a good curb appeal. The home is move-in ready and has potential for value-adding updates to enhance its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the appeal of the bathrooms and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $209,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $209,990 Zillow