5562 Caroline Dr · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$128,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1970 0.42 ac lot Est $176k · 27% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This four bedroom home includes 1.5 baths and a one car attached garage. There is a fourth bedroom shown as an office on the attached sketch. It also features a 24' x 36' detached garage/workshop with a second driveway for access. This is a great investment opportunity and is being sold as-is. Do not miss this one!

Key facts

• Second driveway
• Workshop
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• SECOND DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.0% in Horn Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Cormorant Elementary (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #56 of 375 statewide, top 15%, 647 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant Middle (math 51% / reading 30%, grade F, #60 of 179 statewide, top 37%, 764 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant High (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #66 of 197 statewide, top 34%, 969 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,526
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5770 Chickasaw Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+0%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	75
5722 Chickasaw Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-4%)	1mo	$189,000	$176	74
5656 Mississippi 301	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+5%)	1mo	$209,900	$179	67
5161 Crestwood Cv	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+4%)	10mo	$154,900	$134	65
5605 Choctaw Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+8%)	10mo	$120,000	$99	65
5205 Gray Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,183 (+6%)	9mo	$164,900	$139	63
5089 Woody Cv	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+8%)	3mo	$149,900	$125	57
5951 Adams Cir	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-8%)	12mo	$179,900	$175	56
5654 Crestwood Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+6%)	12mo	$184,980	$157	56
5820 Gray Cv	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-6%)	14mo	$179,999	$171	55
5135 Woody Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,243 (+11%)	5mo	$193,800	$156	51
5713 Cherokee Dr Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+12%)	13mo	$204,900	$164	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,056
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,538
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $384	+0% $348	+5% $312	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $287	+0% $348	+5% $409	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $381	base $348	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5840 Gray Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,295	$1.21	44d	1	0.48mi
5318 Haynes Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,583	$1.32	44d	1	0.49mi
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	24d	1	0.50mi
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	15d	1	0.50mi
5229 Nail Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	912	$1,235	$1.35	24d	1	0.56mi
4506 Shadow Hollow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,645	$1.27	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $128,000
3. 2025-11-10
   price $152,900
4. 2025-11-10
   price $159,900
5. 2025-11-10
   price $149,900
6. 2025-10-20
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $2,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $3,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $128,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $152,900 MLSU
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $159,900 MLSU
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $149,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-20 Listed $159,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +1092.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.