7435 Scenic Dr · East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$157,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2015 0.28 ac lot Est $197k · 20% under $100/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A lovely home close to the lake. The spacious living room is open to the dining area and kitchen with breakfast bar and granite counters. Two bedrooms along with a full bath. Large fenced yard with beautiful trees and covered patio with a view of Lake Tawakoni right across the street. Neighborhood park has private boat ramp, beach-sand swim area and fishing pier.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Fencing
• Granite tops

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN TO KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GRANITE TOPS
• LARGE YARD
• FENCING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.284 acre); Subdivision: Rolling Hills Sec II; Listing offers accepted: Cash, Conventional, Texas Vet, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Voluntary association; HOA fee of $100 (management contact available)

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Deck parking options; No garage / no covered or carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Accessible entrance, hallway(s), and kitchen; Attached property
• Construction: Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — approx. 13 x 11; Second bedroom (Level 1) — approx. 11 x 11
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High-speed internet available; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-504/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,018 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,355
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7426 Scenic Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+9%)	5mo	$145,000	$119	74
7434 Scenic Dr	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,174 (+5%)	20mo	$220,000	$187	71
7353 Shoreline Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,158 (+4%)	15mo	$204,999	$177	61
7797 Scenic Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+8%)	16mo	$160,000	$133	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $83,423
• Equity at exit: $142,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $247,972
• Equity at exit: $306,765

Cash invested: $44,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $150,482

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,475
• Closing costs: $4,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $157,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,900 Active Option Contract 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,900 Active Option Contract 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $157,900 Active Option Contract 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $157,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $157,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-05-23
    historical Active Option Contract
11. 2026-05-22
    price $157,900
12. 2026-05-16
    listed $150,000 Active
13. 2019-06-17
    soldstatus
14. 2019-06-13
    soldstatus Sold 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A lovely home close to the lake. The spacious living room is open to the dining area and kitchen with breakfast bar and granite counters. Two bedrooms along with a full bath. Large fenced yard with beautiful trees and covered patio with a view of Lake Tawakoni right across the street. Neighborhood park has private boat ramp, beach-sand swim area and fishing pier.

15. 2019-05-13
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A lovely home close to the lake. The spacious living room is open to the dining area and kitchen with breakfast bar and granite counters. Two bedrooms along with a full bath. Large fenced yard with beautiful trees and covered patio with a view of Lake Tawakoni right across the street. Neighborhood park has private boat ramp, beach-sand swim area and fishing pier.

16. 2019-04-22
    listed $150,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A lovely home close to the lake. The spacious living room is open to the dining area and kitchen with breakfast bar and granite counters. Two bedrooms along with a full bath. Large fenced yard with beautiful trees and covered patio with a view of Lake Tawakoni right across the street. Neighborhood park has private boat ramp, beach-sand swim area and fishing pier.

17. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus
18. 2016-07-01
    soldstatus Sold 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great Water View LAKE HOME - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT in 2015! Roof New in 2015, NEW HVAC in 2015, along with Inside and Outside Paint and Flooring. Updated Bath and Laundry Room. Nice Large Lot with Trees. Large Deck to enjoy the outdoors and Great Lake Views! Beautiful Updated Kitchen w Granite Counter Tops and Breakfast Bar, New Appliances in 2015. Dining & Living Room have Great Views of the Lake!

19. 2016-05-23
    historical Active Kick-Out 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great Water View LAKE HOME - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT in 2015! Roof New in 2015, NEW HVAC in 2015, along with Inside and Outside Paint and Flooring. Updated Bath and Laundry Room. Nice Large Lot with Trees. Large Deck to enjoy the outdoors and Great Lake Views! Beautiful Updated Kitchen w Granite Counter Tops and Breakfast Bar, New Appliances in 2015. Dining & Living Room have Great Views of the Lake!

20. 2016-05-22
    historical 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great Water View LAKE HOME - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT in 2015! Roof New in 2015, NEW HVAC in 2015, along with Inside and Outside Paint and Flooring. Updated Bath and Laundry Room. Nice Large Lot with Trees. Large Deck to enjoy the outdoors and Great Lake Views! Beautiful Updated Kitchen w Granite Counter Tops and Breakfast Bar, New Appliances in 2015. Dining & Living Room have Great Views of the Lake!

21. 2016-04-05
    price $112,500 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great Water View LAKE HOME - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT in 2015! Roof New in 2015, NEW HVAC in 2015, along with Inside and Outside Paint and Flooring. Updated Bath and Laundry Room. Nice Large Lot with Trees. Large Deck to enjoy the outdoors and Great Lake Views! Beautiful Updated Kitchen w Granite Counter Tops and Breakfast Bar, New Appliances in 2015. Dining & Living Room have Great Views of the Lake!

22. 2016-02-11
    listed $115,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great Water View LAKE HOME - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT in 2015! Roof New in 2015, NEW HVAC in 2015, along with Inside and Outside Paint and Flooring. Updated Bath and Laundry Room. Nice Large Lot with Trees. Large Deck to enjoy the outdoors and Great Lake Views! Beautiful Updated Kitchen w Granite Counter Tops and Breakfast Bar, New Appliances in 2015. Dining & Living Room have Great Views of the Lake!

23. 2016-02-04
    historical
24. 2015-09-12
    price $115,000
25. 2015-08-17
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,845
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,593
• Taxable loss: −$3,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$747
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $157,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2019-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-05-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-04-22 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-05-23 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-05-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-04-05 Price Changed $112,500 NTREIS
• 2016-02-11 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-09-12 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2015-08-17 Listed $125,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,705 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.