41414 S Brenda Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1974 2.00 ac lot $256/sqft · 14% below area Est $232k · 14% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CABIN LIVING ON TWO BEAUTIFUL ACRES. Imagine your investment opportunities! Tear it down and bring your mobile home, or revamp it and create a rustic cabin get away. Minutes from the Woodlands, Conroe, Houston, Tomball. City water, electric on the property, original septic system. NO HOA. Not in the flood plain. Location location location!

Key facts

• Two beautiful acres
• 2 acre lot
• Built 1974

Tags

• TWO BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
• RUSTIC CABIN GET AWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,949 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,663
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $78,873
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $247,183
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,766/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $125,949

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-306	-5% $-363	+0% $-419	+5% $-476	+10% $-532
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-471	+0% $-419	+5% $-368	+10% $-317
Rate	-1.0pp $-318	-0.5pp $-368	base $-419	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $200,000 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    CABIN LIVING ON TWO BEAUTIFUL ACRES. Imagine your investment opportunities! Tear it down and bring your mobile home, or revamp it and create a rustic cabin get away. Minutes from the Woodlands, Conroe, Houston, Tomball. City water, electric on the property, original septic system. NO HOA. Not in the flood plain. Location location location!

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $235,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    CABIN LIVING ON TWO BEAUTIFUL ACRES. Imagine your investment opportunities! Tear it down and bring your mobile home, or revamp it and create a rustic cabin get away. Minutes from the Woodlands, Conroe, Houston, Tomball. City water, electric on the property, original septic system. NO HOA. Not in the flood plain. Location location location!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,766 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,766 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,766
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,085
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,766 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.