20427 Lakeside Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1971 0.69 ac lot Est $284k · 12% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bath home perfectly balances comfort and style. Gather around the impressive wood-burning fireplace with built-ins that add warmth and character. The well-appointed kitchen features abundant cabinetry, offering plenty of space for cooking and storage. A spacious bonus room provides flexibility for a game room, media space, or additional living area. Enjoy outdoor living on the large covered patio—ideal for morning coffee or relaxing evenings overlooking the peaceful surroundings. Set on a generous lot, the property offers room to play and a charming country feel. Recent updates include a new washer, dryer, refrigerator, Lennox A/C unit, fresh paint, new carp

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Recent updates
• Spacious bonus room

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUS LOT
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Golden Trails association with a $65 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1971; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Enclosed porch; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Enclosed porch; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-36/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 956 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 11218% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,840 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20427 Lakeside Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,028 (0%)	1mo	$249,000	$123	99
16703 Holly St	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-1%)	2mo	$289,900	$145	71
20914 Wildbird Cherry St	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-1%)	0mo	$289,900	$145	63
20895 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-1%)	4mo	$279,900	$140	61
21011 Voyage Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,897 (-6%)	6mo	$249,900	$132	60
21022 Voyage Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,952 (-4%)	6mo	$259,900	$133	58
16718 Brighter Blooms Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-1%)	6mo	$274,900	$137	57
21018 Voyage Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,789 (-12%)	5mo	$239,900	$134	51
16452 Moss Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+11%)	2mo	$299,900	$133	46
20883 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-12%)	3mo	$269,900	$151	44
20907 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-12%)	2mo	$269,900	$151	43
16722 Brighter Blooms Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-12%)	5mo	$269,900	$151	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,535
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,107
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,945/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,312

Max offer price $248,468

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $67	+0% $-3	+5% $-73	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-94	+0% $-3	+5% $88	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $60	base $-3	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	46d	1	0.50mi
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	26d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-05
   historical $1,900
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-14
   price $1,900
4. 2026-04-13
   price $249,000
5. 2026-03-31
   listed $2,200
6. 2026-03-30
   price $259,000
7. 2026-03-16
   price $269,000
8. 2026-03-05
   price $279,000
9. 2026-02-28
   listed $290,000 Active
10. 2026-02-24
    historical
11. 2026-02-12
    listed $290,000 Active
12. 2025-01-20
    historical $2,300
13. 2024-12-22
    listed $2,300
14. 2024-12-20
    listed $2,300 Active
15. 2024-12-20
    historical
16. 2024-02-20
    soldstatus
17. 2018-12-18
    historical
18. 2018-11-01
    listed $198,500 Active
19. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus
21. 2014-05-16
    price $72,500 Active
22. 2014-05-16
    status Active
23. 2014-05-16
    status Option Pending
24. 2014-05-16
    status Active
25. 2014-05-16
    status Pending
26. 2014-05-08
    historical
27. 2014-05-08
    status Active
28. 2014-04-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2014-04-14
    status Active
30. 2014-04-11
    status Pending, Continue to Show
31. 2014-04-09
    listed $82,500 Active
32. 2000-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,945 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,945 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,945
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-12-22 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Listed $198,500 HARMLS
• 2014-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $72,500 HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-09 Listed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2000-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,945 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.