1200 Bay Ave · Highland Beach, MD 21403

$669,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,399 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2001 0.35 ac lot Est $808k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a serene setting, this exquisite Colonial-style residence offers a harmonious blend of elegance and comfort, perfect for those seeking a luxurious lifestyle. Potenial five bedroom, Built in 2001, this detached home spans an impressive 2,399 square feet, providing ample space for both relaxation and entertainment. As you step inside, you are greeted by a warm and inviting atmosphere that flows seamlessly throughout the home. The thoughtfully designed layout features five spacious bedrooms, ensuring that everyone has their own private retreat. The two full bathrooms are tastefully appointed, showcasing high-end finishes that elevate everyday living into a spa-like experience. The h

Key facts

• Open concept design
• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 2001

Tags

• COLONIAL STYLE RESIDENCE
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR OASIS
• WELL ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Other water source; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Year built is estimated
• Construction: Frame construction; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on first upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Accessible main-level ramp; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $669k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-89/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $668k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $539k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $539k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#386 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,387/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) (locally 858% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $669k implies a 569% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $538,652 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $808,463
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1192 Bay Highlands Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-8%)	8mo	$700,000	$318	67
1230 Crummell Ave	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,555 (+6%)	7mo	$1,135,000	$444	64
1189 Bay Highlands Dr	0.17mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,484 (+4%)	15mo	$883,000	$355	63
3219 Henson Ave	0.07mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,220 (-8%)	14mo	$820,000	$369	62
3233 Chrisland Dr	0.52mi	5/3.5	2,518 (+5%)	3mo	$849,900	$338	59
1356 Moyer Ct	0.55mi	5/2.0	2,592 (+8%)	12mo	$625,000	$241	51
1337 Blackwalnut Ct	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,500 (+4%)	10mo	$637,500	$255	47
1195 Bay Highlands Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,115 (-12%)	23mo	$862,000	$408	44
3283-A Arundel On The Bay Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,666 (+11%)	22mo	$899,000	$337	42
3140 Anchorage Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,555 (+6%)	10mo	$839,900	$329	39
1345 Sycamore Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,650 (+10%)	12mo	$853,605	$322	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-106,786
• Equity at exit: $99,750

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-84,931
• Equity at exit: $57,843

Cash invested: $187,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21403

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,508
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,708/yr
• Insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,131
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,396

Max offer price $667,696

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $182	+0% $-7	+5% $-197	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-220	+0% $-7	+5% $205	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $163	base $-7	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $167,250
• Closing costs: $20,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1334 Magnolia Ave Annapolis, MD	4.0	3.0	2085	$4,995	$2.40	22d	1	1.14mi
1312 Magnolia Ave Annapolis, MD	4.0	3.0	1928	$4,200	$2.18	44d	1	1.15mi
3737 Thomas Point Rd Annapolis, MD	4.0	3.0	2700	$9,500	$3.52	5d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $669,000 Active
3. 2001-02-27
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,708 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,500 · $542/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,474
• − Property taxes: −$5,708
• − Insurance: −$3,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,171
• − Management: −$5,171
• − Depreciation: −$19,462
• Taxable loss: −$11,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,806
• After-tax cash flow: $2,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Highland Beach

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #21083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Beach, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 32,681
• Household income: $123,329
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 11% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -421.55%
• Current HPI: 301.2229
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+569.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $669,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,708 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.