208 Tudor Dr · Denton, MI 48651

$159,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 367 Days on market

Built 1946 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman's Special! Spacious 5 bedroom, 1.5 bath home on two fenced lots with 2,751 square feet of potential. Features include dual staircases to the upper level, partial concrete driveway, and located within walking distance to the lake. A great investment opportunity or fixer-upper with tons of character and room to grow!

Key facts

• Fenced lots
• Dual staircases
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• DUAL STAIRCASES
• FENCED LOTS
• PARTIAL CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; About 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.28 acres (100 x 120)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven / Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $159k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,883
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Seneca Trl	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (-13%)	7mo	$319,900	$133	38
1002 Houghton View Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,524 (-8%)	24mo	$850,000	$337	24
324 Kimberly Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,148 (+14%)	23mo	$340,700	$108	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,601
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $29,686
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48651

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   price $159,000 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $163,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $163,000 Active 357 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $163,000 Active 356 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $163,000 Active 353 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,000 Active 352 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,000 Active 351 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,000 Active 350 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,000 Active 349 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    status Active
17. 2025-12-15
    price $163,000
18. 2025-10-18
    historical
19. 2025-06-27
    price $169,000
20. 2025-05-30
    price $172,000
21. 2025-04-17
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2024-01-01
    historical
23. 2023-10-27
    price $149,900
24. 2023-08-28
    status Active
25. 2023-08-23
    status Pending
26. 2022-12-13
    price $179,000
27. 2022-06-09
    listed $189,000 Active
28. 2018-08-27
    historical
29. 2018-04-26
    listed $74,900
30. 2013-01-30
    soldstatus $25,000
31. 2010-06-17
    soldstatus $56,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$505
• After-tax cash flow: $4,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Denton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houghton Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,331

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.27%
• Current HPI: 252.9662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $163,000 WWMLS
• 2025-10-18 Delisted — WWMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $169,000 WWMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $172,000 WWMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $175,000 WWMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $179,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-09 Listed $189,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-04-26 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2013-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $56,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.