2905 51st Ave W · South Bradenton, FL 34207

$132,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Condo public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1971 $527/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Oakwood Villas! 2-bedroom, 1-bath offering comfort, convenience, and pond views. Featuring a new roof, carpet throughout, an open living/dining area, Florida room, and updated IMPACT windows, this home is move in ready. Step outside to a brick paver patio overlooking the water, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Covered parking and an outside laundry closet to add convenience. Oakwood Villas offers a community pool, clubhouse, BBQ area, and shuffleboard courts, all just minutes from shopping, dining, GT Bray Park, and only 8 miles to Anna Maria Island's beaches. Whether full-time or seasonal, this villa delivers the Florida lifestyle. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• BRICK PAVER PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• BBQ AREA
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets not allowed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $527; Total annual fees $6,324; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (C&S Management / Dana McGann); Monthly condo fee $527; Association approval required; Community clubhouse; Pool and shuffleboard court; HOA covers cable TV, internet, insurance, maintenance (structure & grounds), pool, escrow reserves fund, fidelity bond

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; South facing; Homesteaded property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as single-level unit
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area; Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-617/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $916 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $132k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-29,189
• Equity at exit: $19,756

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-46,745
• Equity at exit: $11,456

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$527
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $123,411

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-14	+0% $-51	+5% $-89	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-115	+0% $-51	+5% $12	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-18	base $-51	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	16d	1	0.03mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	16d	1	0.03mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,269	$1.49	3d	16	0.14mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	24d	1	0.18mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	21d	1	0.21mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.23mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	12d	1	0.24mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	12d	1	0.24mi
3278 51st Avenue Dr W Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	24d	1	0.31mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	0.36mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	3d	4	0.37mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	12d	5	0.37mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,250	$1.58	20d	5	0.37mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	0.40mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,358	$1.50	24d	1	0.43mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	16d	1	0.45mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	24d	1	0.47mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	24d	1	0.50mi
184 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,100	$2.23	24d	1	0.56mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,384	$1.38	2d	10	0.60mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,249	$1.55	2d	14	0.66mi
3401 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1293	$3,300	$2.55	3d	3	0.67mi
3506 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,800	$1.89	3d	2	0.72mi
3605 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$3,738	$3.21	3d	2	0.73mi
3604 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,050	$3.64	3d	3	0.74mi
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	24d	1	0.82mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	24d	1	0.91mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	24d	1	0.91mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,451	$1.47	2d	1	0.94mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 0314 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,967	$1.84	24d	1	0.94mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 1210 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,932	$1.80	3d	1	0.94mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$1,868	$2.08	21d	10	0.94mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	0.96mi
3848 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	24d	1	1.00mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	3d	1	1.01mi
3851 59th Ave W Unit 3851 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	24d	1	1.02mi
3843 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	24d	1	1.02mi
3774 59th Ave W Unit 3774 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,350	$1.48	24d	1	1.04mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	24d	1	1.04mi
3775 59th Ave W Unit 3775 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$3,500	$3.84	24d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $527 · $6,324/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $132,500 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $132,500 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-02-13
   price $132,500
4. 2025-11-18
   price $135,000
5. 2025-10-07
   listed $139,000 Active
6. 2025-06-30
   historical
7. 2025-05-21
   price $146,500
8. 2025-04-07
   price $155,000
9. 2025-03-12
   price $162,000
10. 2025-01-12
    listed $165,000 Active
11. 2014-08-19
    soldstatus $45,000
12. 1994-02-16
    soldstatus $35,000
13. 1990-12-05
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$553/yr (+$46/mo · 101.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − HOA: −$6,324
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$2,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $4/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+314.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $132,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $146,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-12 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.