11 Scotts Landing Rd · North Sea, NY 11968

$1,899,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1997 0.52 ac lot $30/mo HOA ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for versatility and modern Hamptons living, this rare Southampton Shores compound sits on over half an acre and offers two fully independent residences with a two-car garage in a coveted waterfront community with access to a private beach on Peconic Bay or the Little Peconic Yacht Club with docking and moorings on Wooley's Pond, tennis courts, and more. Renovated in 2018, the property combines beachy charm, curb appeal, and contemporary comfort. The main residence is a classic two-bedroom, two-bath retreat with an open living, dining, and kitchen layout that flows seamlessly to an inviting large south-facing deck for dining al fresco featuring manicured grounds with room for a pool

Key facts

• Expansion potential
• Private beach
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• DOCKING AND MOORINGS
• TENNIS COURTS
• MANICURED GROUNDS
• EXPANSION POTENTIAL
• SOLAR POWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.70M (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.50M (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,953/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,495,292 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,262,208
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Turtle Cove Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (+7%)	8mo	$1,350,000	$692	66
493 Water Mill Towd Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,914 (+5%)	8mo	$1,600,000	$836	47
10 Roses Grove Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,016 (+10%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$546	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-313,846
• Equity at exit: $283,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-22,593
• Equity at exit: $164,191

Cash invested: $531,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,959
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,374 /mo · $28,485/yr
• Insurance: −$791
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,140
• Net cashflow: $-1,341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,650

Max offer price $1,704,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-685	+0% $-1,341	+5% $-1,997	+10% $-2,653
Rent	-10% $-2,522	-5% $-1,931	+0% $-1,341	+5% $-750	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-384	-0.5pp $-858	base $-1,341	+0.5pp $-1,833	+1.0pp $-2,333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $474,750
• Closing costs: $56,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Warfield Way Southampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$22,000	$13.99	44d	1	0.10mi
99 Turtle Cove Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	1.0	2205	$45,000	$20.41	44d	1	0.20mi
76 Peconic Hills Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2060	$38,000	$18.45	25d	1	0.83mi
18 Bay View Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2600	$50,000	$19.23	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-29
   price $1,899,000
3. 2025-08-26
   listed $2,099,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $179,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,374
• − Property taxes: −$28,485
• − Insurance: −$9,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,355
• − Management: −$14,355
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$55,244
• Taxable loss: −$49,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $1,899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $2,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,918 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.