515 Sophee Ln #1000 · Toms River, NJ 08701

$188,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · Condo public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2007 $211/sqft · at area comps Est $186k · at est. $403/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Covington Village, Ocean County's premier upscale 55+ condo community. This well-maintained, move-in ready one-bedroom home has a new HVAC system and water heater (both 2025.) It features: a spacious open-plan living room/dining room; 9-Foot ceilings; a separate laundry closet; a roomy kitchen; a large bedroom with walk-in closet; and a private covered terrace/patio (with an outdoor storage closet) which looks out at wooded green space. Community amenities include a beautifully designed and decorated clubhouse with meeting and banquet rooms, a library, movie theater and billiards, and a well-appointed fitness center. The recreational facilities include a lovely outdoor pool and fountain patio for summer dining and events, all on 35 lush landscaped acres with 3 ponds. Covington Village is conveniently located 1.5 miles to the Garden State Parkway; only 20 minutes to some of the Jersey Shore's best beaches, boardwalks and attactions; and close to all dining, shopping and medical facilities. Make your appointment today for a private showing of this special home.

Key facts

• Wooded green space
• New water heater
• Library

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE COVERED TERRACE
• WOODED GREEN SPACE
• CLUBHOUSE WITH MEETING ROOMS
• LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (11.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $188k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,014
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: 1.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-38,110
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-42,343
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$403
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,095

Max offer price $166,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-71	+0% $-124	+5% $-177	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-201	+0% $-124	+5% $-47	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-76	base $-124	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	1d	1	0.02mi
1100 Deer Path Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0–1.5	1187	$2,575	$2.17	1d	4	0.48mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	45d	1	0.71mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	3d	1	0.98mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	26d	1	1.19mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	19d	1	1.20mi
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	9d	1	1.29mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	20d	1	1.30mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $403 · $4,836/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $188,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $188,000 Active 1089-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village, Ocean County's premier upscale 55+ condo community. This well-maintained, move-in ready one-bedroom home has a new HVAC system and water heater (both 2025.) It features: a spacious open-plan living room/dining room; 9-Foot ceilings; a separate laundry closet; a roomy kitchen; a large bedroom with walk-in closet; and a private covered terrace/patio (with an outdoor storage closet) which looks out at wooded green space. Community amenities include a beautifully designed and decorated clubhouse with meeting and banquet rooms, a library, movie theater and billiards, and a well-appointed fitness center. The recreational facilities include a lovely outdoor pool and fountain patio for summer dining and events, all on 35 lush landscaped acres with 3 ponds. Covington Village is conveniently located 1.5 miles to the Garden State Parkway; only 20 minutes to some of the Jersey Shore's best beaches, boardwalks and attactions; and close to all dining, shopping and medical facilities. Make your appointment today for a private showing of this special home.

17. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $92,500
18. 2017-06-26
    soldstatus $78,000
19. 2017-06-12
    soldstatus $78,000 Sold 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

20. 2017-05-01
    status Pending 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

21. 2017-02-19
    price $78,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

22. 2016-11-11
    status Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

23. 2016-11-04
    historical 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

24. 2016-07-28
    listed $86,900 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Move in ready impeccable one bedroom unit on first floor.This Abby Model offers highly upgraded kitchen with 42 in. cabinets and granite counter tops with black appliances.9'' ceilings thru out.Huge walk in closet in Master bedroom.Large bathroom with walk in shower.Open floor plan looks out to woods. This community offers a large club house with banquet room, library,billards room,exercise room with TV,movie room,and gathering room with fireplace and wide screen tv. Enjoy heated pool,whirlpool, and grande terrace.Close to park. Easy living. Come and see for yourself.

25. 2016-07-27
    historical
26. 2016-01-26
    listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,469 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,213/yr (+$101/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$4,836
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$4,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+98.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $188,000 MOMLS
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2017-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-12 Sold (MLS) $78,000 MOMLS
• 2017-05-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-02-19 Price Changed $78,900 MOMLS
• 2016-11-11 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2016-11-04 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2016-07-28 Listed $86,900 MOMLS
• 2016-07-27 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2016-01-26 Listed $94,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.