1405 Caddo St · Commerce, TX 75428

$149,999

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1915 8,407 sqft lot $58/sqft · 41% below area Est $253k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity with lots of potential! Conveniently located near the University, this property has potential to become income generating or a great project to make your own. Offering plenty of space, this home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a the large bonus space upstairs. Schedule a showing to come see all that this home offers! Home is being sold as-is - the seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,499 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,309
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -40.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1617 Bonham St	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,545 (-2%)	21mo	$299,500	$118	58
1503 Bonham St	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,356 (-10%)	23mo	$95,000	$40	53
1306 Arp St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,236 (-14%)	14mo	$279,900	$125	48
1500 Bonham St	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,286 (-12%)	22mo	$254,900	$112	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,709
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,600
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75428

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$429 /mo · $5,153/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $128	+0% $85	+5% $43	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $17	+0% $85	+5% $153	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $123	base $85	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 Bois D Arc St Commerce, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,800	$0.87	14d	1	0.25mi
1215 Bois D Arc St Commerce, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,800	$0.87	12d	1	0.25mi
1705 Campbell St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	2876	$1,950	$0.68	18d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-18
    listed $149,999 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Investment opportunity with lots of potential! Conveniently located near the University, this property has potential to become income generating or a great project to make your own. Offering plenty of space, this home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and a the large bonus space upstairs. Schedule a showing to come see all that this home offers! Home is being sold as-is - the seller will make no repairs.

14. 2020-10-29
    soldstatus
15. 2020-10-07
    soldstatus Sold 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    beautiful house within walking distance to A & M. Lots of upgrade, such as fresh paint, double double pane windows, new AC etc. Downstairs offer 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, huge living, 2 dining area. Big kitchen. Upstairs has 1 big bathroom and plenty of living space.

16. 2020-08-31
    status Pending 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    beautiful house within walking distance to A & M. Lots of upgrade, such as fresh paint, double double pane windows, new AC etc. Downstairs offer 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, huge living, 2 dining area. Big kitchen. Upstairs has 1 big bathroom and plenty of living space.

17. 2020-08-29
    historical Active Option Contract 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    beautiful house within walking distance to A & M. Lots of upgrade, such as fresh paint, double double pane windows, new AC etc. Downstairs offer 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, huge living, 2 dining area. Big kitchen. Upstairs has 1 big bathroom and plenty of living space.

18. 2020-07-30
    price $146,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    beautiful house within walking distance to A & M. Lots of upgrade, such as fresh paint, double double pane windows, new AC etc. Downstairs offer 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, huge living, 2 dining area. Big kitchen. Upstairs has 1 big bathroom and plenty of living space.

19. 2020-07-23
    listed $156,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    beautiful house within walking distance to A & M. Lots of upgrade, such as fresh paint, double double pane windows, new AC etc. Downstairs offer 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, huge living, 2 dining area. Big kitchen. Upstairs has 1 big bathroom and plenty of living space.

20. 2020-06-08
    soldstatus
21. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2016-05-20
    status Pending
23. 2016-05-11
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2016-04-20
    price $50,000
25. 2016-02-04
    price $60,000
26. 2015-12-28
    listed $70,000 Active
27. 2008-11-03
    soldstatus
28. 2007-03-21
    soldstatus
29. 2007-03-15
    soldstatus
30. 2007-03-07
    historical
31. 2006-12-22
    listed $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,153 · $429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,153 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$5,153
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,295
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7977
• State rank: #687 of 826 in TX

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #13696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 11,531
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,531
• Household income: $51,424
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.08%
• Current HPI: 289.0436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+525.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $149,999 NTREIS
• 2020-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-08-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-07-30 Price Changed $146,000 NTREIS
• 2020-07-23 Listed $156,000 NTREIS
• 2020-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-04-20 Price Changed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-04 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2015-12-28 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2008-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-03-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-12-22 Listed $24,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,153 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.