Plan 1605 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78073

$203,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE
• 5-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. The $203,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,974.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,635 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,974
• List price: $203,995
• Delta: -14.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12922 Jeopardy Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-0%)	2mo	$244,684	$153	91
13007 Jeopardy Ave	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,676 (+4%)	2mo	$215,819	$129	76
4819 Maiz Vly	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,687 (+5%)	0mo	$299,990	$178	72
4606 Legacy Trl	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+4%)	1mo	$207,999	$125	66
4639 Legacy Pt	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$200,999	$121	64
4703 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+4%)	1mo	$199,999	$120	62
4615 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+4%)	1mo	$214,999	$129	62
4639 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$200,999	$121	62
4610 Legacy Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-8%)	1mo	$189,999	$129	61
4619 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-8%)	1mo	$186,999	$127	60
4627 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-8%)	2mo	$191,999	$130	60
4643 Legacy Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-8%)	2mo	$199,999	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,143
• Equity at exit: $102,553

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $51,033
• Equity at exit: $154,007

Cash invested: $67,193 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $197,346

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-212	+0% $-295	+5% $-378	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-431	-5% $-363	+0% $-295	+5% $-226	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-234	base $-295	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,993
• Closing costs: $7,199
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4750 Broadside Ave Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,845	$0.88	45d	1	0.19mi
13139 Watson Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,617	$1.59	3d	1	0.40mi
4606 Legacy Trl Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,695	$1.02	5d	1	0.50mi
4839 Legacy Pt Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	22d	1	0.54mi
12955 Fischer Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,357	$1.28	24d	1	0.59mi
11835 Adoring Way Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $203,995 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $203,995 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $203,995 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $203,995 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,995 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $203,995 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $203,995 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $203,995 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $203,995 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $203,995 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $203,995 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $203,995 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,995 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $203,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

15. 2026-03-27
    price $201,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-24
    price $211,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-02-27
    price $216,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-02-13
    price $209,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2026-01-28
    price $208,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

20. 2025-10-14
    price $213,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

21. 2025-09-29
    price $208,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

22. 2025-09-03
    price $206,995 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

23. 2025-08-20
    listed $204,995 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    * Den with walk-in closet * Primary suite at rear of home for added privacy * 5-panel interior doors * Designer-selected lighting fixtures with 100% LED bulbs * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$6,981
• Taxable loss: −$7,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $203,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $201,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $211,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $209,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $208,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $208,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $206,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-20 Listed $204,995 Zillow