9830 Esthlyn St · Keachi, LA 71047

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1975 1.21 ac lot $76/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this unique property situated on just over an acre of fully fenced land. Enclosed by a combination of chain link, wrought iron, and brick fencing—with a powered iron gate at the entrance—this home offers both security and standout curb appeal. The residence is a single-wide mobile home that has been thoughtfully expanded with custom additions, highlighted by attractive brickwork on both the home’s exterior and the surrounding perimeter. Outdoors, you’ll find a spacious brick outdoor kitchen—perfect for entertaining—as well as a large storage shed ideal for tools, equipment, or hobby space. This property blends functionality, privacy, and charm in a peaceful setting with plenty of room to grow. Due to the age of the home and a few additional factors, this property will most likely need to go conventional or cash.

Key facts

• Fully fenced land
• Custom additions
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LAND
• POWERED IRON GATE
• CUSTOM ADDITIONS
• BRICK OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#317 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.51%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -60.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $36,122
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $95,667
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71047

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $832	-5% $808	+0% $784	+5% $760	+10% $736
Rent	-10% $653	-5% $718	+0% $784	+5% $849	+10% $915
Rate	-1.0pp $826	-0.5pp $805	base $784	+0.5pp $762	+1.0pp $739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2025-12-03
   listed $85,000 Active 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this unique property situated on just over an acre of fully fenced land. Enclosed by a combination of chain link, wrought iron, and brick fencing—with a powered iron gate at the entrance—this home offers both security and standout curb appeal. The residence is a single-wide mobile home that has been thoughtfully expanded with custom additions, highlighted by attractive brickwork on both the home’s exterior and the surrounding perimeter. Outdoors, you’ll find a spacious brick outdoor kitchen—perfect for entertaining—as well as a large storage shed ideal for tools, equipment, or hobby space. This property blends functionality, privacy, and charm in a peaceful setting with plenty of room to grow. Due to the age of the home and a few additional factors, this property will most likely need to go conventional or cash.

6. 2025-11-22
   historical
7. 2025-06-23
   price $85,000
8. 2025-05-22
   listed $95,000 Active
9. 2025-03-13
   price $99,500
10. 2025-02-07
    listed $100,000 Active
11. 2025-01-11
    historical
12. 2024-07-11
    listed $100,000 Active
13. 2007-10-03
    soldstatus
14. 2007-08-29
    soldstatus
15. 2005-02-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,043
• After-tax cash flow: $7,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Keachi

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #21617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,874

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 17% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.82%
• Current HPI: 158.0139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2007-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $530 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.