5727 Ny-86 · Wilmington, NY 12997

$149,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · MultiFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1910 0.84 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome To 5727 NYS Route 86! Located Seconds Away From The West Branch Of The Ausable River, Heritage Park, And Bridge Park. This Parcel Features: - Unit 1: 2 Br 1 Bth. - Unit 2: 2 Br 1 Bth. - Unit 3: 3 Br 1 Bth. - Public Water. - Lake Placid School District. Property Needs Work. As Is. Owner Is Real Estate Agent.

Key facts

• Public water
• 0.84 acre lot
• 4 parking spots

Tags

• LAKE PLACID SCHOOL DISTRICT
• PUBLIC WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 35.2% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Placid Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #344 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Placid Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 244 students, 33% FRL); Lake Placid Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 294 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.21%
• DSCR: 5.59
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $269,973
• Equity at exit: $90,699

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.66×
• Total profit: $615,208
• Equity at exit: $161,512

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12997

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,235
• Net cashflow: $3,610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 34%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	—	$5,880
Total (3 units)			$5,881

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-27
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,646
• − Management: −$5,646
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $43,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,446
• After-tax cash flow: $32,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Placid Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,508
• Composite: 44.64/100
• National rank: #2770
• State rank: #344 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #935
• US rank: #18181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Portuguese 7% Slovak 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.62%
• Current HPI: 489.2206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $149,900 Global MLS