3116 Sheriff Ln · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$279,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1983 0.54 ac lot $244/sqft · 45% above area Est $323k · 14% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your future home, located in Poplar Bridge Estates, a small community with low HOA dues. This well maintained 3 bed, 3 bath home is set on a private 1/2 acre+ lot, featuring a meticulously kept yard and surrounded by mature trees - offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and peaceful living. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with three heating zones for added efficiency and year-round comfort. The home features a partially finished basement, providing flexible space for a family room, home office, or recreation area. Additional highlights include a heated garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or keeping your vehicle protected during colder months. Surrounded by mature trees, the property offers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently located near major routes, shopping, and Pocono attractions. Don't pass up this excellent opportunity to have the space, comfort, and practical features you've been looking for.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport; Off-street parking; 1 garage space
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Fiber optic available; 200+ amp electrical service with circuit breakers; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Below-grade finished area present; Above-grade finished area present; Zoned C2 (Commercial)
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Shed(s); Workshop; Partially wooded lot; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Basement includes rooms on lower level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Resilient
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fans; Whole house fan; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Replacement windows, storm windows and screens; Storm door(s); Fireplace in living room (wood burning, lower level)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Water softener (rented); Electric and oil water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $279k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $270,000 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,127
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -13.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Boyer Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+5%)	23mo	$250,000	$208	54
838 Resica Falls Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+4%)	20mo	$275,000	$231	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,413
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-15,889
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,273/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $247	+0% $169	+5% $90	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $62	+0% $169	+5% $275	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $239	base $169	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1273 Chateau Dr East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	1.0	1073	$2,700	$2.52	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 953-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to your future home, located in Poplar Bridge Estates, a small community with low HOA dues. This well maintained 3 bed, 3 bath home is set on a private 1/2 acre+ lot, featuring a meticulously kept yard and surrounded by mature trees - offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and peaceful living. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with three heating zones for added efficiency and year-round comfort. The home features a partially finished basement, providing flexible space for a family room, home office, or recreation area. Additional highlights include a heated garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or keeping your vehicle protected during colder months. Surrounded by mature trees, the property offers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently located near major routes, shopping, and Pocono attractions. Don't pass up this excellent opportunity to have the space, comfort, and practical features you've been looking for.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to your future home, located in Poplar Bridge Estates, a small community with low HOA dues. This well maintained 3 bed, 3 bath home is set on a private 1/2 acre+ lot, featuring a meticulously kept yard and surrounded by mature trees - offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and peaceful living. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with three heating zones for added efficiency and year-round comfort. The home features a partially finished basement, providing flexible space for a family room, home office, or recreation area. Additional highlights include a heated garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or keeping your vehicle protected during colder months. Surrounded by mature trees, the property offers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently located near major routes, shopping, and Pocono attractions. Don't pass up this excellent opportunity to have the space, comfort, and practical features you've been looking for.

3. 2026-05-06
   listed $279,000 Active 971-char remark
4. 2026-05-04
   listed $279,000 Active 953-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to your future home, located in Poplar Bridge Estates, a small community with low HOA dues. This well maintained 3 bed, 3 bath home is set on a private 1/2 acre+ lot, featuring a meticulously kept yard and surrounded by mature trees - offering the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and peaceful living. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with three heating zones for added efficiency and year-round comfort. The home features a partially finished basement, providing flexible space for a family room, home office, or recreation area. Additional highlights include a heated garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or keeping your vehicle protected during colder months. Surrounded by mature trees, the property offers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently located near major routes, shopping, and Pocono attractions. Don't pass up this excellent opportunity to have the space, comfort, and practical features you've been looking for.

5. 1993-05-28
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,273 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,341 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,273
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$2,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $2,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $279,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $279,000 PMAR
• 1993-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,273 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.