Gehrig Plan · Mayflower, AR 72106

$226,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

The Vineyard is a community offering brand-new single-family homes with small-town charm in central Arkansas, now selling in Mayflower, AR. Residents will be a short drive from major cities like Little Rock, with ample outdoor recreation available on nearby Lake Conway. The city provides a vibrant, intellectual atmosphere with two nearby universities, including Hendrix College, a prestigious liberal arts institution, and the University of Central Arkansas. Stock up on all essentials and more with fantastic deals and a wide selection of goods at Sam's Club.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $226,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Gehrig plan (new construction plan); Single-family property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,732 finished area)

🏗️ New construction. The $226,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,016.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayflower Elementary School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 373 students, 70% FRL); Mayflower Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 201 statewide, top 64%, 315 students, 68% FRL); Mayflower High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 357 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 47% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $176,032 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Vineyard Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+7%)	1mo	$236,900	$128	87
3 Vineyard Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-4%)	2mo	$211,000	$127	85
101 E Fredonia Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$232,000	$140	84
108 E Sunbelt Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,858 (+7%)	1mo	$252,000	$136	83
117 E Sunbelt Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,858 (+7%)	2mo	$245,000	$132	82
113 E Sunbelt Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+10%)	2mo	$258,500	$136	78
102 E Fredonia Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+10%)	2mo	$262,000	$138	76
4 Concord Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	1mo	$269,900	$169	74
13 Vineyard Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-15%)	2mo	$196,000	$133	71
16 E Reliance Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-15%)	0mo	$222,900	$151	69
13 E Reliance Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-15%)	0mo	$219,900	$149	68
15 E Reliance Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-12%)	1mo	$220,900	$145	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $107,335
• Equity at exit: $208,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $327,666
• Equity at exit: $443,176

Cash invested: $66,924 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $201,230

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-179	+0% $-261	+5% $-344	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-331	+0% $-261	+5% $-192	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-200	base $-261	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,754
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	16d	1	0.04mi
11 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	45d	1	0.07mi
7 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.10mi
110 Sunbelt Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,750	$0.92	45d	1	0.10mi
5 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	45d	1	0.11mi
3 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	16d	1	0.12mi
104 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.16mi
103 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	16d	1	0.17mi
101 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,923	$1.16	16d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $226,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $226,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 562-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $226,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,389
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$7,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B