7603 Foxwaithe Ln · Houston, TX 77338

$230,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2016 5,201 sqft lot Est $309k · 25% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous home! Better than new !!! So many upgrades, better than new construction. This gorgeous shows pride of homeownership. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home boats and open concept floor plan with an island kitchen. Primary bedroom is located on the first floor and a large game room and secondary bedrooms up. Tile throughout the first floor, lighting upgrades, large primary bedroom with large closet , open floor plan, landscape and sprinkler system make this a great home! Located close to shopping, restaurants, and with close proximity to HWY 59 and 45.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Quick access to 45
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• GAME ROOM
• QUICK ACCESS TO HWY 59
• QUICK ACCESS TO 45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cypresswood El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 767 students, 88% FRL); Jones Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 1,348 students, 86% FRL); Nimitz H S (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,772 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,576 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20430 Percheron Trl	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,680 (-13%)	1mo	$299,999	$112	74
7526 Stallion Trail Dr	0.27mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,900 (-6%)	3mo	$299,900	$103	66
20318 Shire Ridge Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,688 (-13%)	13mo	$269,999	$100	58
7126 Fox Scene Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	3,220 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$82	56
7210 Fox Hall Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,695 (-13%)	6mo	$239,900	$89	47
21303 Maple Harvest Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	3,410 (+10%)	10mo	$289,900	$85	46
20838 Foxwood Garden Dr	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (-12%)	1mo	$250,000	$93	46
20938 Fox Trot Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,724 (-12%)	9mo	$220,000	$81	44
20919 Foxwood Glen Ln	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,695 (-13%)	10mo	$299,000	$111	37
7206 Foxcrest Ln	0.50mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,493 (+13%)	12mo	$315,000	$90	35
20923 Fox Cliff Ln	0.72mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (-12%)	14mo	$329,000	$122	29
7226 Fox Scene Dr	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,695 (-13%)	13mo	$275,000	$102	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,060
• Equity at exit: $58,015

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,800
• Equity at exit: $63,073

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$680 /mo · $8,157/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $192,576

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-147	+0% $-212	+5% $-277	+10% $-342
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-302	+0% $-212	+5% $-122	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-153	base $-212	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19931 Arrowsmith Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$1,831	$0.81	25d	1	0.45mi
20911 Foxwood Glen Ln Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2690	$2,475	$0.92	45d	1	0.55mi
20735 Fox Cliff Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2404	$2,175	$0.90	45d	1	0.55mi
6707 Level Pond Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2927	$2,316	$0.79	23d	1	0.83mi
8818 Cornina Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2868	$2,295	$0.80	0d	1	1.19mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2023-11-01
   historical $2,200
4. 2023-10-24
   price $2,200
5. 2023-09-29
   price $2,600
6. 2023-09-21
   listed $2,800
7. 2021-11-01
   soldstatus
8. 2021-10-29
   soldstatus Sold 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   Gorgeous home! Better than new !!! So many upgrades, better than new construction. This gorgeous shows pride of homeownership. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home boats and open concept floor plan with an island kitchen. Primary bedroom is located on the first floor and a large game room and secondary bedrooms up. Tile throughout the first floor, lighting upgrades, large primary bedroom with large closet , open floor plan, landscape and sprinkler system make this a great home! Located close to shopping, restaurants, and with close proximity to HWY 59 and 45.

9. 2021-09-24
   status Pending 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   Gorgeous home! Better than new !!! So many upgrades, better than new construction. This gorgeous shows pride of homeownership. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home boats and open concept floor plan with an island kitchen. Primary bedroom is located on the first floor and a large game room and secondary bedrooms up. Tile throughout the first floor, lighting upgrades, large primary bedroom with large closet , open floor plan, landscape and sprinkler system make this a great home! Located close to shopping, restaurants, and with close proximity to HWY 59 and 45.

10. 2021-09-17
    status Option Pending 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Gorgeous home! Better than new !!! So many upgrades, better than new construction. This gorgeous shows pride of homeownership. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home boats and open concept floor plan with an island kitchen. Primary bedroom is located on the first floor and a large game room and secondary bedrooms up. Tile throughout the first floor, lighting upgrades, large primary bedroom with large closet , open floor plan, landscape and sprinkler system make this a great home! Located close to shopping, restaurants, and with close proximity to HWY 59 and 45.

11. 2021-09-11
    listed $315,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Gorgeous home! Better than new !!! So many upgrades, better than new construction. This gorgeous shows pride of homeownership. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home boats and open concept floor plan with an island kitchen. Primary bedroom is located on the first floor and a large game room and secondary bedrooms up. Tile throughout the first floor, lighting upgrades, large primary bedroom with large closet , open floor plan, landscape and sprinkler system make this a great home! Located close to shopping, restaurants, and with close proximity to HWY 59 and 45.

12. 2021-08-30
    historical
13. 2021-08-14
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,157 · $680/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,157 · $680/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$8,157
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,505
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-09-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-11 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-08-14 Listed $299,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,157 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.